isinlor

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2019

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.028k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
91.431	Will SpaceX start testing a Starship (BFS) before 2020?	Binary
82.644	Will Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 be found in 2019?	Binary
70.513	How many MPs will the "Independent Group" have after the next UK general election?	Continuous
59.266	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2020?	Binary
39.258	How many seats will the People's Party of Canada win in the next Canadian election?	Continuous
39.119	Will an EU country veto an extension of Brexit's deliberation before Oct 31st 2019?	Binary
38.758	Will US troops intervene in Venezuela?	Binary
38.197	Will the UK revoke Article 50 by June 23 2020?	Binary
36.387	Will the UK's Conservative Government fall before 2020?	Binary
36.040	Will Elon Musk still be CEO of Tesla on January 1, 2020?	Binary
35.354	Will Algeria hold Presidential Election in 2019?	Binary
32.039	Will any piece of art be sold for more than $450.3 million in 2019?	Binary
31.687	Will Richard Branson fail to go to space on July 20th 2019?	Binary
31.022	If Donald Trump is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, will the U.S. Senate take the referral to a vote?	Binary
30.005	How much will be pledged on the Metaculus Patreon on its halfaversary?	Continuous
28.543	Will the UK leave the EU without a deal by April 12th?	Binary
28.098	Will the identity of the author of anonymous NYT editorial become known in 2019?	Binary
27.063	Will Czech Republic's Prime Minister Andrej Babiš experience a significant leadership disruption between 20 June 2019 and 22 August 2019?	Binary
26.675	Will Oman be removed from the EU list of non-cooperative tax jurisdictions between 20 June 2019 and 31 October 2019?	Binary
26.462	Will the current Ebola outbreak in the DRC be ongoing after February 2020?	Binary
26.156	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q3 - Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018	Binary
25.525	Will Election Betting Odds report a >60% chance of a Trump 2020 presidential election victory by November 30, 2019?	Binary
25.467	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in August 2019?	Binary
22.609	Will the current Dutch cabinet keep a majority in the Dutch senate after the election on May 27 2019?	Binary
20.643	Will the United States continue to be the country with the largest share of computational power in the November 2019 TOP500?	Binary
20.464	Will the Liberal Party of Canada win the most seats in the next Canadian general election?	Binary
20.427	How many Republican U.S. senators will vote to convict on at least one article of impeachment, if Trump is impeached by the House during his first term?	Continuous
19.628	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in September 2019?	Binary
19.269	Will President Trump meet Kim Jong-un for a second time before April 2019?	Binary
18.646	Will Tesla have a higher market capitalization than Ford on 01 January 2020?	Binary
18.498	Will OpenAI Five win against the reigning Dota 2 world champions OG?	Binary
18.299	Before 30 November 2019, will Germany's Bundestag adopt a bill that would impose a fine on parents who refuse a measles vaccine for their children?	Binary
16.713	When will Steven Universe: The Movie be released?	Continuous
16.368	Will Mitt Romney challenge Donald Trump in the Republican Primaries for the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
15.040	[Short Fuse] Will more than 10% of flights departing from Hong Kong Intl. Airport be cancelled on the 16th of August 2019?	Binary
14.766	Will there be rioting in the UK or Gibraltar if the UK is still in the EU on 30 March 2019?	Binary
14.106	Will the US government shut down on February 16th?	Binary
11.889	Will either the Japanese or Norwegian government blame Iran for the June 2019 Gulf of Oman incident?	Binary
11.269	How many civilians will be killed in Syria in September 2019, according to the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR)?	Continuous
11.233	Will the current Ebola outbreak claim more than 1000 lives?	Binary
10.742	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be indicted?	Binary
9.969	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in 2019?	Binary
9.805	Will Carnegie Mellon be the top university accepted to NeurIPS 2019?	Binary
9.505	How many homicides will there be in London in 2019?	Continuous
9.327	Between 23 May 2019 and 30 July 2019, will the Spanish monarch appoint a President of the Government?	Binary
8.790	[Short Fuse] During the 7 days starting August 7th 2019, will the Google search volume for "Hong Kong protest" spike to at least 25% of its all time peak?	Binary
8.490	How many main characters will survive Game of Thrones?	Continuous
8.482	If Donald J. Trump is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, how many articles of impeachment will be brought to the U.S. Senate?	Continuous
8.391	Falcon Heavy booster landing redux: How many boosters will Falcon Heavy Flight 2 land successfully?	Continuous
8.263	Will the S&P 500 end 2019 higher?	Binary
7.115	Will Nabil Karoui win the popular vote on the first round of the September 2019 Tunisian Election?	Binary
6.808	Will North Korea fail to send the U.S. a Christmas Gift?	Binary
6.472	By the end of 2019, will AlphaStar have won > 80% of its games against top players?	Binary
3.809	What will be the IMDB score of The Expanse Season 4 one week after it has been aired?	Continuous
3.335	Will there be more ArXiv AI publications in the “Computation and Language” subcategory than in the “Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition” subcategory in the calendar year 2019?	Binary
2.417	Will the number of Yellow-Vests-affiliated protesters in France decline?	Binary
1.983	Will Joe Biden run for President in 2020?	Binary
1.568	Will Brexit happen by end of day, October 31st, 2019?	Binary
1.515	If the UK participates in the European Parliament elections in 2019, what percentage of the popular vote will the Brexit Party win?	Continuous
0.620	Before 30 November 2019, will it be announced that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free trade agreement negotiations have concluded?	Binary
0.506	Before 30 November 2019, will an Ebola health worker be injured or killed in an attack against an Ebola facility inside the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, or Tanzania?	Binary
0.505	[Short Fuse] What will this question's interest score be on October 3rd?	Continuous
0.421	When will Jeremy Corbyn cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
-0.115	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q5 - No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019	Binary
-2.924	Will the SAIDA Starcraft bot win the Student Starcraft AI Tournament?	Binary
-4.742	Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit $30,000 before it hits $20,000?	Binary
-4.781	[Short Fuse] Will no Prime Minister of Italy be named in August 2019?	Binary
-4.815	British Pound / Euro parity before January 1st, 2020?	Binary
-7.941	Will PewDiePie be the first YouTuber to have 100M subscribers?	Binary
-14.608	Between 23 May 2019 and 29 November 2019, will the IMF approve one or more tranches for release to Ukraine?	Binary
-14.876	Attempted crewed Boeing CST-100 Starliner flight prior to 2020?	Binary
-16.478	Will Iran execute or be targeted in a national military attack between 6 June 2019 and 5 October 2019?	Binary
-18.648	Will the International Crisis Group report a deteriorated situation for Iran in July 2019?	Binary
-32.012	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q1 - The United Kingdom will leave the European Union in 2019?	Binary
-60.928	Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2019?	Binary
-113.563	Best Penn Treebank perplexity of 2019?	Continuous