RookAndalus

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.204k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.330	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
98.118	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
96.980	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
95.977	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
95.150	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
91.075	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
86.670	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
86.047	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
84.665	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
80.253	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
77.604	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
75.494	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
75.445	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
74.861	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
74.799	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
69.888	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
67.534	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
55.058	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
47.729	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
44.452	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
43.714	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
43.703	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
37.705	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
32.715	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
30.872	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
29.982	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
29.963	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
29.109	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
28.732	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
27.401	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
26.514	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
26.440	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
24.833	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
24.796	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
24.724	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
24.690	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
21.798	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
13.920	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
11.196	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
11.080	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
9.730	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
8.514	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
6.185	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
6.162	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
4.758	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
4.445	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
2.532	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
-	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
-2.884	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-3.300	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
-4.526	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
-6.873	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-8.735	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
-13.052	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
-19.152	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-20.907	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
-26.391	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-45.231	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-45.796	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-55.583	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
-62.063	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
-195.465	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous
-448.203	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary