r.grannell2

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.491k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
90.801	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
89.892	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
87.083	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
86.278	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
85.478	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
81.825	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
81.031	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
73.683	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
72.882	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
71.923	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
65.023	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
64.045	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
63.915	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
63.059	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
62.385	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
61.267	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
58.771	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
57.978	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
55.785	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
51.530	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
48.571	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
47.189	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
43.663	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
42.027	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
34.481	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
33.970	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
32.784	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
32.421	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
32.009	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
27.242	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
25.237	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
24.935	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
24.233	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
23.982	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
21.875	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
21.639	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
17.932	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
16.046	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
14.507	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
14.408	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
10.811	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
10.531	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
10.220	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
9.858	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
9.171	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
4.299	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
2.851	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
1.616	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
-0.000	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
-0.252	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
-6.250	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
-9.303	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
-11.463	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-20.350	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
-192.834	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
-331.452	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary