Zweihander

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5762	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
153.263	Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?	Continuous
147.924	When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?	Continuous
126.720	How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?	Continuous
117.980	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?	Continuous
116.466	What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)	Continuous
101.606	How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?	Continuous
98.545	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
98.483	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
98.467	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
98.027	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
97.797	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
97.710	Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?	Binary
97.010	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
96.743	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
96.147	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
94.620	What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?	Continuous
92.589	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
92.587	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
92.137	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
91.858	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
91.455	When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?	Continuous
91.257	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
91.058	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
88.583	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
87.879	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
87.068	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
86.339	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
83.727	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	Binary
83.026	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
80.948	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
80.683	Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?	Binary
80.350	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
78.103	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
77.258	What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?	Continuous
77.067	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
76.545	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
75.257	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
72.489	In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?	Continuous
70.615	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
70.572	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
69.282	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
67.622	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
67.551	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
67.539	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
67.362	Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?	Continuous
66.726	How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?	Continuous
66.317	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
65.308	What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?	Continuous
62.360	Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?	Continuous
62.281	Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?	Binary
61.412	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
59.951	What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?	Continuous
59.600	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
59.253	How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?	Continuous
58.497	Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?	Binary
58.494	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
58.469	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
58.281	What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?	Continuous
58.096	By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?	Binary
57.929	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
57.905	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
56.407	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
55.643	What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?	Continuous
55.496	When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?	Continuous
55.262	How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?	Continuous
55.183	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
55.124	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
55.046	What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?	Continuous
54.788	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
54.784	Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?	Binary
54.304	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
54.283	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?	Binary
53.975	How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?	Continuous
53.750	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
53.233	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
52.697	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
52.600	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
52.493	When will the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) definitely spot its first neutrino(s)?	Continuous
52.437	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
50.638	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
50.462	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
50.227	As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	Continuous
48.834	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?	Continuous
48.322	Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?	Binary
48.038	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
46.704	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
44.477	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
43.901	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
42.403	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
42.298	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
41.975	Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?	Binary
41.693	Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023?	Binary
40.391	When will GTA VI be released in the US?	Continuous
40.049	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?	Continuous
39.961	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
39.593	How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?	Continuous
39.405	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
39.235	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
38.988	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
38.954	How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?	Continuous
38.534	What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?	Continuous
38.462	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
37.854	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
37.850	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
37.828	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
37.761	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
37.234	Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?	Binary
37.163	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
37.056	When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?	Continuous
36.815	When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?	Continuous
36.417	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
36.253	What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?	Continuous
36.151	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
35.550	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
34.542	What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?	Continuous
33.790	When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?	Continuous
33.695	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
33.318	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
33.095	Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?	Binary
32.010	Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?	Binary
31.193	When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?	Continuous
31.158	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
30.985	By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?	Binary
30.473	How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?	Continuous
30.043	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
29.368	What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?	Continuous
28.953	LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?	Continuous
27.826	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
27.395	What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?	Continuous
27.294	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
27.289	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
26.741	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
26.567	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
26.335	Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?	Binary
26.301	Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?	Binary
26.020	When will the Apple car be unveiled?	Continuous
25.629	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
25.410	Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?	Binary
25.130	Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?	Binary
24.817	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
23.549	When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
23.208	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
23.124	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
20.856	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
20.656	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
20.616	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
19.906	Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)	Binary
19.474	How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
19.258	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
19.232	When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?	Continuous
18.870	When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?	Continuous
18.564	Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?	Binary
18.545	On December 1, 2023, how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?	Continuous
18.031	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous
17.888	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
17.797	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
17.463	When will be the next S&P 500 correction?	Continuous
17.107	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
15.503	Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?	Binary
13.495	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
12.691	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
12.497	Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
11.105	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
10.592	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
10.215	Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?	Binary
10.213	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
10.113	When will the VIX index fall below 20?	Continuous
9.233	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
9.185	How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?	Continuous
8.990	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
8.949	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
8.002	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
7.976	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
7.870	In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?	Continuous
7.062	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
6.346	Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?	Binary
3.839	By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?	Binary
3.351	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
3.342	When will the first exaflop performer appear?	Continuous
2.377	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
1.390	Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?	Binary
1.253	Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?	Binary
1.190	Will another paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022?	Binary
0.235	Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?	Binary
0.048	When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?	Continuous
0.032	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
-0.056	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
-0.247	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L4)	Continuous
-0.344	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
-1.596	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
-1.755	When will US auto manufacturing recover to 80% of pre-COVID-19 production levels?	Continuous
-2.171	How many countries will be awarded a B or better for farm animal welfare protection by to the Animal Protection Index by end of 2022?	Continuous
-2.528	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
-3.480	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
-6.758	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
-6.792	How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?	Continuous
-6.954	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-8.044	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
-8.923	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
-12.751	Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?	Binary
-13.667	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
-13.881	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
-14.671	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-14.705	Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-14.822	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?	Binary
-15.059	Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?	Binary
-15.178	Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?	Binary
-15.932	Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?	Binary
-15.982	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
-20.565	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
-21.728	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
-22.631	Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022?	Binary
-30.008	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
-30.985	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
-31.381	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-32.086	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
-32.190	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
-34.196	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	Continuous
-37.085	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
-38.394	Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?	Binary
-39.555	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-39.615	When will programs write programs for us?	Continuous
-40.277	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
-44.095	Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?	Binary
-48.141	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
-50.216	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-50.389	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-51.450	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
-53.519	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-67.182	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
-80.119	When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?	Continuous
-81.723	Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?	Binary
-83.408	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-96.451	If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?	Continuous
-107.179	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
-108.813	Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?	Binary
-117.813	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
-117.901	If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?	Binary
-121.171	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
-125.641	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
-139.059	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-171.072	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
-205.849	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
-211.491	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous
-227.587	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous