Bob_Jacobs

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3721	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
124.074	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?	Continuous
117.700	What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)	Continuous
111.433	In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?	Continuous
110.598	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
102.675	Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?	Continuous
98.421	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
96.248	When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?	Continuous
94.028	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
92.326	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
86.166	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
83.819	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
83.361	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
82.308	Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?	Binary
75.384	What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?	Continuous
71.867	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
71.525	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
70.045	What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?	Continuous
68.792	What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?	Continuous
67.192	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
67.071	What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?	Continuous
66.256	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
66.136	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
64.824	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
64.678	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
63.550	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
62.451	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
60.688	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
59.676	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
59.605	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
58.617	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
57.293	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
57.059	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
56.103	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?	Continuous
55.249	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
54.820	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
54.501	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
54.450	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
53.790	How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?	Continuous
53.563	Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?	Binary
51.731	What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?	Continuous
49.440	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
48.306	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
46.912	How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?	Continuous
46.792	Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
46.716	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
46.413	As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	Continuous
43.987	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
42.534	How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?	Continuous
41.724	What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?	Continuous
41.239	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
41.080	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
39.563	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
39.453	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
39.424	How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?	Continuous
39.391	What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?	Continuous
37.968	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
37.619	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
37.596	Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?	Binary
37.137	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
35.599	How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?	Continuous
35.291	How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?	Continuous
35.173	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
34.447	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
34.047	When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?	Continuous
33.836	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
33.793	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
33.099	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?	Continuous
32.989	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	Binary
32.768	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
32.705	How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?	Continuous
31.155	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
30.839	Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?	Continuous
29.810	How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
29.715	On December 1, 2023, how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?	Continuous
28.866	Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?	Binary
28.528	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
28.267	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
27.975	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
27.827	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
26.699	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
26.617	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
26.477	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
26.286	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
26.190	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
24.685	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
23.985	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
23.396	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
22.919	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
22.438	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
22.222	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
22.195	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
21.631	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
21.486	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
21.380	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
20.495	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
20.192	When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?	Continuous
19.631	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
18.992	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
17.525	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
17.122	How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?	Continuous
16.758	Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?	Binary
16.322	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
16.278	Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023?	Binary
16.222	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
16.092	Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?	Binary
15.562	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
15.251	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
14.738	Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?	Binary
14.420	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
13.086	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
12.386	What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?	Continuous
11.340	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
11.282	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
11.107	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
10.929	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
10.768	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
10.632	Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?	Binary
10.539	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
9.947	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous
9.867	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
9.670	What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?	Continuous
9.221	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
8.799	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
8.375	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
7.621	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
7.561	When will be the next S&P 500 correction?	Continuous
7.434	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
7.323	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
6.890	Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
5.845	When will the VIX index fall below 20?	Continuous
5.554	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
5.546	Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?	Binary
5.208	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
4.524	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
4.425	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
3.489	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
3.027	In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?	Continuous
2.859	How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?	Continuous
2.748	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
2.165	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
2.028	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
1.990	When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?	Continuous
1.873	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
1.832	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
1.663	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
1.649	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
1.615	Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?	Binary
1.072	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
0.915	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
0.629	Will another paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022?	Binary
0.325	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
0.316	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
0.229	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
0.194	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
0.000	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
-	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
-0.354	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-0.476	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
-0.557	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
-1.381	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
-1.910	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
-6.179	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
-9.113	Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?	Binary
-10.834	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-12.777	What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?	Continuous
-15.147	Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?	Binary
-16.849	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
-20.294	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
-28.214	Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?	Binary
-29.817	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
-30.172	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
-31.567	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-31.889	If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?	Binary
-36.210	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
-37.841	When will GTA VI be released in the US?	Continuous
-47.961	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
-61.993	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
-64.923	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
-73.560	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	Continuous
-98.970	When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?	Continuous
-100.580	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
-102.273	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
-102.518	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
-133.353	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-192.797	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous
-238.855	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary