Nichevo

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

632.2	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
74.552	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
71.532	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
65.394	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
57.772	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
54.283	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
51.919	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
49.572	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
46.170	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
38.931	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
37.163	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
26.530	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
26.386	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
25.957	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
22.096	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
18.975	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?	Continuous
18.118	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
17.727	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
17.666	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
16.756	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
16.128	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
15.599	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
14.660	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
10.660	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
10.526	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
10.366	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
10.032	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
9.503	What percent of ArXiv AI publications in the calendar year 2019 will be in the subcategory “Computation and Language”?	Continuous
9.081	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
7.982	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
7.811	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
6.485	How large will the largest single grant made by Open Philanthropy in 2020 be?	Continuous
6.077	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
5.253	How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?	Continuous
3.954	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
3.942	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
3.528	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
2.299	When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI?	Continuous
1.881	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
0.698	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
0.689	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
0.672	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
0.649	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
0.537	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
0.307	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
0.050	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
-0.012	What will Virgin Galactic be worth 6 months after it is listed on the stock market?	Continuous
-0.474	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
-3.424	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
-7.228	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-8.391	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
-14.893	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
-27.356	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
-52.617	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary
-55.911	Who will win the 'Greatest of All Time' Jeopardy tournament with Ken Jennings, Brad Rutter, and James Holzhauer?	Continuous
-94.314	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous