| 103.559 | What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14? | Continuous |
| 95.538 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 95.462 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 92.705 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 92.535 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 92.535 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 91.009 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 89.775 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 89.455 | What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 89.396 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 89.086 | What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 88.273 | When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify? | Continuous |
| 87.380 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 86.702 | What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 86.502 | What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022) | Continuous |
| 86.303 | Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022? | Binary |
| 85.510 | What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025? | Continuous |
| 84.401 | What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 84.227 | What will be the share of global light vehicles sold which are zero-emission vehicles in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 83.195 | What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| 83.121 | Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025? | Binary |
| 82.921 | How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 82.920 | What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 82.837 | What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 82.771 | What will be the share of global light vehicles sold which are zero-emission vehicles in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 82.707 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 81.500 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 81.052 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 80.236 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 75.929 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 75.507 | Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 75.396 | What will be the share of zero-emission vehicle federal fleet procurements in the United States in the following fiscal years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 73.054 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 72.976 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 72.539 | What will the world population be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 69.759 | What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 69.038 | Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024? | Binary |
| 68.960 | Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? | Binary |
| 67.685 | What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 64.100 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 62.257 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 61.619 | How many chickens will be slaughtered for meat globally in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 61.231 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 60.346 | Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025? | Binary |
| 56.913 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 54.717 | What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models? | Continuous |
| 54.088 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 53.421 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 53.052 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 53.052 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 51.024 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 50.818 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 50.613 | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Binary |
| 50.468 | How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 49.849 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 49.006 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 48.502 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 48.129 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 47.679 | How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023) | Continuous |
| 47.013 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 45.559 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 44.922 | By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty? | Binary |
| 42.664 | How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 41.925 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
| 40.370 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 39.993 | How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2025) | Continuous |
| 38.558 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 38.219 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 36.610 | What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15? | Continuous |
| 36.389 | How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 35.772 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| 35.612 | Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025? | Binary |
| 35.149 | What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14? | Continuous |
| 34.456 | How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 34.323 | When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths? | Continuous |
| 33.237 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| 32.929 | How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 31.226 | By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 30.975 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 30.056 | What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Feb-2023) | Continuous |
| 28.120 | What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 25.928 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| 24.295 | What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Feb-2023) | Continuous |
| 20.302 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 20.102 | How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 17.558 | What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list? | Continuous |
| 15.460 | How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 12.979 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 12.880 | What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 12.665 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023? | Binary |
| 12.061 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 8.420 | What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 5.854 | What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 4.322 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| 2.949 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House) | Binary |
| 2.813 | What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2? | Continuous |
| 1.211 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House) | Binary |
| 0.475 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House) | Binary |
| 0.259 | What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2024) | Continuous |
| -0.788 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn) | Continuous |
| -7.139 | What will be the annual average retail gasoline price (in 2022 USD per gallon) in the United States in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| -7.230 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| -11.448 | What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -12.928 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| -14.051 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -18.452 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| -25.047 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| -29.235 | What will the world rice yield be (in tonnes per hectare) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -33.015 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
| -38.636 | What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -48.793 | What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2023) | Continuous |
| -52.750 | How many zero emission light vehicles will be available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) in the United States for the following model years? (2024) | Continuous |
| -52.819 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| -54.021 | How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024? | Continuous |
| -58.937 | What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area? | Continuous |
| -59.329 | What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -63.249 | What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020? (2023) | Continuous |
| -70.678 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy? | Continuous |
| -78.554 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| -79.696 | Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| -79.892 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur) | Continuous |
| -87.355 | How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025? | Continuous |
| -88.649 | Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? | Binary |
| -94.610 | What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list? | Continuous |
| -108.091 | How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -109.085 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Ariane 6) | Continuous |
| -110.913 | What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022? | Continuous |
| -113.828 | What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in California in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2024) | Continuous |
| -115.342 | What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants? | Continuous |
| -120.210 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| -131.322 | What will be the share of zero-emission vehicle federal fleet procurements in the United States in the following fiscal years? (2024) | Continuous |
| -179.252 | What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| -188.396 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| -191.712 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| -194.340 | When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100? | Continuous |
| -204.589 | What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD? | Continuous |
| -209.362 | What will be the median estimated range (in miles) of all-electric vehicles available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) for the following model years? (2024) | Continuous |
| -214.904 | How many states will have legally enforceable rules that are at least as stringent as Advanced Clean Cars II on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| -215.167 | What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14? | Continuous |
| -219.239 | What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy? | Continuous |
| -220.540 | What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -225.356 | What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020? (2024) | Continuous |