101.631 | How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report? | Continuous |
99.711 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
99.100 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
99.069 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
98.981 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
98.212 | Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025? | Binary |
98.196 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2025) | Binary |
97.902 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024) | Binary |
97.808 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
97.258 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
97.258 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
97.258 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
97.013 | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Binary |
96.965 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
96.667 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
96.367 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
96.341 | Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU? | Binary |
96.293 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
95.973 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
95.780 | Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023? | Binary |
95.706 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
95.640 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
95.593 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
95.593 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
95.390 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
94.243 | Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025? | Binary |
94.082 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
92.725 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
91.566 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
90.681 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
90.681 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
90.681 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
88.011 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
87.407 | Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023? | Binary |
86.925 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
86.779 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
86.432 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
85.761 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
85.583 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
84.781 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
84.781 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
84.540 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
84.260 | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Binary |
83.890 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
83.890 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
83.559 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
82.854 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
81.829 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
81.829 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
81.747 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
81.204 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
80.841 | Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta? | Binary |
79.192 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
78.879 | By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus? (2025) | Binary |
78.272 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
77.134 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
76.198 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
75.964 | Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
74.515 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
72.644 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
72.399 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
72.399 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
72.399 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
69.231 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
68.983 | How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023? | Continuous |
67.981 | Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025? | Binary |
67.031 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
66.887 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
66.693 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
66.084 | What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025? | Continuous |
65.288 | Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023? | Binary |
64.553 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
63.005 | When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.? | Continuous |
62.476 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
62.476 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
58.851 | What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
58.542 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
58.385 | Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta? | Binary |
57.760 | Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025? | Binary |
56.944 | Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled? | Binary |
55.995 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
55.995 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
55.995 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
55.995 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
55.856 | How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
55.826 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023? | Binary |
54.382 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
54.382 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
54.382 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
53.655 | How many uncontrolled reentries will China conduct by 2025? | Continuous |
53.021 | How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021? | Continuous |
51.585 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
50.209 | When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human? | Continuous |
45.860 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
44.602 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
44.175 | Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022? | Binary |
42.574 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
42.098 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
42.027 | What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
41.569 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
35.879 | Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023? | Binary |
32.641 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
32.226 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
31.386 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
30.366 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
28.907 | Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
28.145 | What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
26.040 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn) | Continuous |
25.557 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
23.537 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Ariane 6) | Continuous |
22.786 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
18.739 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
17.296 | How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime? | Continuous |
16.848 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
16.743 | What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Feb-2023) | Continuous |
16.647 | Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022? | Binary |
16.201 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
15.175 | What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
13.253 | When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months? | Continuous |
12.768 | When will an LLM replace GPT-4 at the top of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard? | Continuous |
11.575 | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
10.151 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur) | Continuous |
7.513 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
5.815 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes) | Binary |
5.726 | When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring? | Continuous |
5.414 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
3.679 | When will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land? | Continuous |
3.065 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes) | Binary |
2.310 | Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023? | Binary |
2.179 | Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023? | Binary |
1.225 | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
0.492 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
0.201 | Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
-2.932 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No) | Binary |
-6.765 | What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025? (2024) | Continuous |
-8.341 | When will used/pre-owned RTX30 series Nvidia GPUs suitable for deep learning sell below retail price? | Continuous |
-9.926 | What will be the annual inflation in Latvia in 2022? | Continuous |
-12.586 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
-15.332 | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | Binary |
-34.510 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No) | Binary |
-71.886 | Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023? | Binary |
-91.870 | When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued) | Continuous |
-98.479 | Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022? | Binary |
-154.066 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
-187.482 | When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit? | Continuous |
-260.188 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |