isaacdunn

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

2.867k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
166.029	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous
118.050	For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
89.655	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
86.550	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
86.232	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
84.694	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?	Binary
82.720	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
78.130	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?	Binary
76.439	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
76.347	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
74.938	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
73.936	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
72.777	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
70.861	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
70.273	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
68.302	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
66.985	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
66.030	Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
65.863	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
64.357	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
60.814	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
59.071	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
57.828	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
56.563	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
55.878	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
55.127	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
52.950	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
52.563	Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?	Binary
52.435	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
49.055	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
49.028	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	Binary
47.922	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
47.025	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
42.409	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
42.325	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
41.955	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
39.573	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
39.569	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?	Continuous
38.538	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
38.357	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
38.271	What will be the COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index for the US be on February 1st 2021?	Continuous
38.072	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L3)	Continuous
37.849	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
36.925	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
36.097	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
36.038	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
35.993	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?	Binary
35.570	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
34.602	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
34.270	Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
34.239	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
33.357	Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
33.274	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for January 2021?	Continuous
32.973	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
32.064	Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
32.040	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
31.886	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
31.597	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	Binary
31.053	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
30.289	What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021?	Continuous
30.076	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
29.846	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
29.340	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
29.239	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	Binary
28.647	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
26.161	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
25.252	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?	Continuous
24.955	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
23.981	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
23.864	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
22.929	Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?	Binary
22.649	How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
22.590	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
21.189	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
21.163	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
21.112	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
19.235	What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?	Continuous
18.364	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
18.017	What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
17.136	What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?	Continuous
16.696	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
16.401	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?	Continuous
16.157	How many consumer plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be sold in the US in 2020?	Continuous
15.876	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
14.945	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
14.455	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	Binary
14.012	How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?	Continuous
12.228	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
11.030	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	Binary
9.991	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
9.524	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
9.073	When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?	Continuous
8.797	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
6.650	When will the first Macs with Apple Silicon ship?	Continuous
6.424	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
6.023	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
5.421	Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?	Binary
5.171	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
4.997	When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard?	Continuous
4.300	What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?	Continuous
3.651	How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?	Continuous
3.020	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
2.590	What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?	Continuous
2.553	When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?	Continuous
2.392	What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
1.105	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee?	Continuous
1.028	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
0.987	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
0.976	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
0.832	How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?	Continuous
0.559	Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?	Binary
0.545	Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021?	Binary
0.502	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?	Continuous
0.315	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be cast via early in-person voting?	Continuous
0.164	When will Disneyland reopen?	Continuous
0.098	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
-0.180	What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?	Continuous
-1.226	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-1.675	How many consumer electric vehicles (including PHEV, HEV and EV) will be sold by Volkswagen group in 2020?	Continuous
-1.763	Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?	Binary
-1.820	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	Binary
-2.578	Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?	Binary
-5.494	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?	Binary
-6.814	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
-7.539	By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?	Binary
-8.692	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
-12.963	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
-14.070	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
-14.188	Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?	Binary
-15.181	Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
-17.711	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	Continuous
-19.474	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
-21.884	Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2020?	Binary
-24.844	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]	Continuous
-42.816	When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?	Continuous
-45.092	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
-49.712	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
-50.508	If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?	Binary
-53.323	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021?	Continuous
-59.441	What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?	Continuous
-63.747	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
-83.907	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
-87.299	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
-90.870	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
-142.836	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous
-195.402	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous