| 56.785 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 53.576 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 53.286 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 51.394 | Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday? | Multiple Choice |
| 47.517 | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 47.181 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 44.160 | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| 42.229 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 42.229 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 42.229 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI) | Binary |
| 40.501 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Illinois for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 38.936 | How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 38.647 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Massachusetts) | Continuous |
| 37.695 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board) | Binary |
| 37.695 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 36.496 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
New York for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 28.557 | How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2023-2024 season? | Continuous |
| 27.413 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Massachusetts for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo) | Binary |
| 26.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Leinier Domínguez Pérez) | Binary |
| 25.722 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 25.012 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 24.355 | Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2024 Jan 31st, ≥ 40%) | Binary |
| 22.060 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 21.038 | Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024? | Binary |
| 19.384 | Will Dutch supermarket Albert Heijn still sell crompouces by April 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 19.077 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Missouri for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 17.718 | Will Erling Haaland score the most goals in the 2023/24 Premier League season? | Binary |
| 16.512 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D)) | Binary |
| 12.105 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson) | Binary |
| 12.105 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban) | Binary |
| 12.105 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney) | Binary |
| 12.105 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin) | Binary |
| 11.167 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 10.541 | Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections? | Binary |
| 10.068 | Will a New or Joint "Worst 82-Game Regular Season Record" in NBA History be set in 2024? | Binary |
| 9.839 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 9.736 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Colorado for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 8.429 | Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
| 7.503 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Pennsylvania for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 6.831 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 5.877 | What will be the exchange rate for the Swedish Krona (SEK) to the US Dollar (USD) on June 30, 2024? | Continuous |
| 5.402 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional) | Binary |
| 5.402 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional) | Binary |
| 5.402 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional) | Binary |
| 5.378 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, not optional) | Binary |
| 5.289 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 5.262 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 5.262 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 5.262 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| 5.258 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional) | Binary |
| 5.258 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional) | Binary |
| 5.206 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| 5.148 | Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season? | Binary |
| 5.122 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP)) | Binary |
| 5.068 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 5.038 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 4.916 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 4.912 | Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025? | Binary |
| 4.867 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| 4.693 | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 4.599 | Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024? | Binary |
| 4.565 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
| 4.560 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 4.560 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 4.560 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 4.560 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 4.560 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 4.560 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 4.560 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 4.560 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 4.560 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 4.560 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 4.560 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 4.560 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 4.560 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 4.560 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 4.560 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 4.560 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 4.560 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 4.560 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 4.560 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 4.560 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 4.560 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 4.560 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 4.551 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 4.551 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 4.551 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 4.551 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 4.551 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 4.551 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 4.551 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 4.503 | Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election? | Binary |
| 4.502 | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 4.492 | How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"? | Continuous |
| 4.487 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 4.262 | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 4.088 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 3.855 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| 3.751 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 3.746 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 3.713 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 3.431 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 3.127 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Florida for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 3.123 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| 2.974 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| 2.705 | Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election? | Binary |
| 2.474 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
| 2.301 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 2.211 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
| 2.149 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 2.066 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 2.057 | Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 1.925 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| 1.506 | Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont? | Binary |
| 1.104 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 0.904 | What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (May-24) | Continuous |
| 0.817 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics) | Binary |
| 0.817 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks) | Binary |
| 0.487 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 0.487 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 0.487 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 0.481 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 0.467 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 0.467 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 0.450 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-24) | Continuous |
| 0.424 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 0.374 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 0.331 | Will the Republican Party retain California's 20th District in the 2024 special election? | Binary |
| 0.185 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 0.112 | What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 0.063 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 0.063 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| 0.008 | Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025? | Binary |
| -13.837 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| -15.537 | Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India? | Binary |
| -15.580 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |