PepeS

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6530	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
189.499	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
128.557	In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?	Continuous
128.465	Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?	Continuous
126.347	When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?	Continuous
124.091	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?	Continuous
117.616	What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?	Continuous
105.861	What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)	Continuous
96.924	What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?	Continuous
95.901	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
95.468	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
94.849	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
92.983	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
90.470	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
88.147	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
87.622	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
86.067	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
84.550	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
84.452	Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?	Binary
83.817	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
83.294	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
82.788	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
82.446	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
82.100	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
81.607	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	Binary
81.316	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
81.104	Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?	Binary
78.340	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
76.681	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
76.107	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
74.202	Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?	Binary
73.347	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
70.959	Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023?	Binary
70.851	What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?	Continuous
70.635	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
70.560	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
69.619	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
68.861	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
68.859	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
68.048	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
66.583	Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
66.532	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
66.271	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
66.266	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
65.992	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
65.896	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
64.862	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
64.746	How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
64.670	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
64.648	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
64.478	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
63.537	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
63.296	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
62.649	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
62.114	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
61.749	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
61.587	What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?	Continuous
59.326	How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?	Continuous
58.632	When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?	Continuous
58.219	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
58.109	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
57.988	How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?	Continuous
57.309	How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?	Continuous
56.609	How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?	Continuous
56.333	What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?	Continuous
54.320	What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?	Continuous
54.146	How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?	Continuous
53.825	How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?	Continuous
52.951	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
52.598	Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?	Binary
51.639	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
51.230	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
50.864	Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?	Binary
50.776	How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?	Continuous
50.468	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
49.972	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
48.175	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
47.954	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
46.537	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
46.005	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
45.915	LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?	Continuous
45.809	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
45.571	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
45.339	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous
45.220	When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?	Continuous
43.851	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
43.676	How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?	Continuous
42.895	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
42.794	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
42.542	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
41.781	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
40.820	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
40.164	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
39.257	What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?	Continuous
38.604	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
38.388	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?	Continuous
38.038	Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?	Continuous
36.147	When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?	Continuous
36.063	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
35.887	Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?	Binary
35.807	On December 1, 2023, how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?	Continuous
35.318	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
35.251	When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?	Continuous
35.118	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
34.803	Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?	Binary
33.966	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
33.723	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
32.944	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
32.475	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
31.669	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
31.311	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
30.834	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
30.396	Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
30.330	Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?	Continuous
30.132	In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?	Continuous
29.997	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
29.741	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
29.310	As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	Continuous
28.283	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
28.029	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
27.872	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
27.595	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
27.448	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	Continuous
27.067	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?	Continuous
25.615	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
24.210	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
24.121	When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?	Continuous
24.072	When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?	Continuous
23.801	What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?	Continuous
23.049	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
22.395	What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?	Continuous
21.919	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
21.122	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
19.213	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
17.933	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
17.681	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
16.889	When will be the next S&P 500 correction?	Continuous
16.814	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
16.355	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
16.333	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
16.323	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
16.026	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
16.009	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
15.680	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
14.820	Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?	Binary
14.410	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
14.123	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
13.546	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
13.545	What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?	Continuous
12.447	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
12.175	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
10.951	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
10.291	When will GTA VI be released in the US?	Continuous
10.242	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
9.217	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
8.672	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
8.667	When will the VIX index fall below 20?	Continuous
7.703	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L4)	Continuous
7.676	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
6.922	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
6.839	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
6.295	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
6.049	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
5.897	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
4.908	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
4.803	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
4.010	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
3.790	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
2.666	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
2.626	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
2.406	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
2.172	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
1.485	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
1.045	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
0.783	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
0.754	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
0.000	What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?	Continuous
-0.036	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
-0.038	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-0.487	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
-0.643	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
-2.077	When will US auto manufacturing recover to 80% of pre-COVID-19 production levels?	Continuous
-3.104	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-3.511	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-5.414	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
-6.796	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
-6.867	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
-7.385	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
-10.238	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
-13.217	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
-15.533	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
-17.997	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
-22.379	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
-22.467	Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?	Binary
-28.352	Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?	Binary
-43.217	If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?	Binary
-50.950	Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?	Binary
-60.046	Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?	Binary
-69.344	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
-89.157	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
-91.653	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
-125.798	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
-148.291	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
-150.630	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-163.434	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous
-166.132	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
-184.213	If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?	Continuous