kjz

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

5612	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.320	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
98.170	Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?	Binary
96.190	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
96.119	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
95.240	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
95.156	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
94.654	Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?	Binary
93.664	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
92.575	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
91.582	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
91.452	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
90.686	By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025?	Continuous
90.379	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
90.335	Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?	Binary
90.261	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
90.100	Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025?	Binary
89.147	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
88.299	Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?	Binary
88.157	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
88.053	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
87.964	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?	Binary
87.525	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
86.918	On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Multiple Choice
86.629	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
86.025	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
85.516	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
84.847	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
84.696	Who will win the Tour de France 2024?	Multiple Choice
84.618	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
84.572	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
84.531	Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?	Binary
83.939	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
83.120	[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?	Binary
82.716	Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?	Binary
82.663	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
81.858	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
81.316	Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games?	Binary
80.600	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
80.289	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
79.305	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
78.996	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
78.456	Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?	Binary
76.065	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
75.740	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
75.724	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
75.375	How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Multiple Choice
75.297	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
73.768	What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024?	Multiple Choice
72.758	Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?	Binary
69.885	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
69.614	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
66.620	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
66.211	Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?	Multiple Choice
65.951	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
65.026	Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Multiple Choice
64.932	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
64.524	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
62.452	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
62.439	How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024?	Continuous
60.444	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Continuous
58.507	What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024?	Continuous
58.036	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Continuous
57.926	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
57.630	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
57.562	Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship?	Multiple Choice
56.618	Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?	Binary
56.134	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
54.673	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
54.231	What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024?	Continuous
54.037	[Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election?	Binary
53.550	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
52.101	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
49.566	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
49.471	Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech?	Binary
49.193	Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?	Binary
49.119	What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Continuous
48.765	What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA?	Continuous
47.208	Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?	Binary
45.342	How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52?	Continuous
44.351	Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?	Binary
44.231	What will be the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024?	Continuous
41.325	How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024?	Multiple Choice
41.295	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
40.478	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
38.515	Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Multiple Choice
37.795	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
37.190	What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024?	Continuous
36.766	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?	Binary
32.119	Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections?	Multiple Choice
31.729	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15)	Continuous
31.727	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
31.247	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30)	Continuous
31.211	How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024?	Multiple Choice
30.525	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
28.359	What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
27.536	How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Multiple Choice
26.137	How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
25.755	Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?	Binary
25.704	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
24.274	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
19.821	How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?	Continuous
19.007	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
17.583	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
17.255	What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024?	Multiple Choice
15.735	Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025?	Binary
15.339	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
11.722	When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
11.267	Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?	Binary
9.279	Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025?	Binary
8.458	By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting?	Multiple Choice
3.864	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
3.712	Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? (Yes) → What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
2.703	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
-0.280	Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.360	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
-0.956	Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025?	Binary
-9.811	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
-11.303	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
-11.716	How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-12.699	Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-17.646	Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?	Binary
-23.453	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-23.628	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024?	Continuous
-26.377	What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024?	Continuous
-28.936	What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?	Multiple Choice
-29.613	Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Multiple Choice
-40.373	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-44.525	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-46.448	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
-46.955	Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?	Binary
-66.219	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-111.238	Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?	Binary
-148.312	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
-198.656	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary
-290.217	Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?	Binary