citizen

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.029k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
86.661	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
69.219	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
65.805	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
50.016	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
49.324	Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?	Binary
48.285	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
46.500	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
46.325	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
46.169	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
43.252	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
40.857	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
39.390	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
31.413	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
28.866	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
28.653	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
28.464	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
28.064	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
27.937	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
26.407	Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
23.933	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
22.233	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
22.136	Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?	Binary
21.579	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	Binary
21.420	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
20.216	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
19.617	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	Continuous
18.513	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
16.025	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?	Binary
15.853	Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?	Binary
15.679	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
15.414	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
15.343	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
15.027	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
13.780	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
13.649	Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
11.882	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
11.664	What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
11.054	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
11.021	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
9.818	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
9.648	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?	Binary
9.048	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
8.980	How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
8.267	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
6.602	What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
5.598	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	Binary
5.431	How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
5.313	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
5.074	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
4.242	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
3.605	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
3.293	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
2.896	How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
2.731	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
2.603	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
2.544	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
2.452	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
2.038	By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?	Binary
2.038	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
1.806	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
1.595	What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?	Continuous
1.529	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
1.159	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
1.065	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
1.020	How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
0.928	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
0.541	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
0.087	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	Continuous
0.013	How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?	Continuous
-0.199	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
-0.217	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
-0.385	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Continuous
-0.782	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
-1.021	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-1.209	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-4.319	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
-7.428	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
-9.526	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
-10.709	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]	Continuous
-19.323	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
-24.995	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
-28.614	Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?	Binary
-33.491	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
-47.350	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
-60.788	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	Continuous