| 98.327 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 98.327 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 98.164 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 97.911 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 97.699 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.909 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 96.159 | Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? | Binary |
| 95.804 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 95.712 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 95.476 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 95.476 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 95.403 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 95.384 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 93.783 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 93.508 | Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025? | Binary |
| 92.723 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 91.728 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024) | Binary |
| 91.716 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 91.627 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 91.297 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 90.315 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 90.315 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 89.880 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 89.229 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 88.809 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 87.818 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 87.477 | Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023? | Binary |
| 86.406 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 86.188 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 85.969 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 84.101 | Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 83.876 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 83.163 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 83.163 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 83.081 | Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections? | Binary |
| 82.420 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 81.999 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 81.092 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 80.910 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 80.608 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 79.613 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 74.779 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 71.417 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 71.346 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 71.034 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 70.725 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 70.231 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 70.078 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 69.977 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 69.958 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 69.958 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 69.958 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 66.414 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional) | Binary |
| 65.532 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 60.884 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 60.840 | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| 60.794 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 60.413 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 59.997 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional) | Binary |
| 59.490 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 59.490 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 59.304 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 59.030 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 58.606 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 58.606 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 56.995 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 56.116 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 54.409 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 53.083 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 50.693 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 49.335 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 49.222 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional) | Binary |
| 49.028 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional) | Binary |
| 48.807 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, not optional) | Binary |
| 48.707 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 46.996 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 46.292 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 43.291 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional) | Binary |
| 42.834 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 42.710 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 42.586 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 42.229 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 42.086 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 41.961 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 41.810 | Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024? | Binary |
| 38.829 | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| 35.970 | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 32.981 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 32.096 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 31.442 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 30.548 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 25.667 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 25.456 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 25.456 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 25.456 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 25.456 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 25.456 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 25.456 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 25.456 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 25.456 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 25.456 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 25.456 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 25.456 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 25.456 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 25.456 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 25.456 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 25.456 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 25.456 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 25.456 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 25.456 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 25.449 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 25.449 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 25.414 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 25.123 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 25.123 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 25.123 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 25.123 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 25.116 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 25.116 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 25.116 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 25.116 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 25.116 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 22.399 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 20.348 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 19.859 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| 19.237 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 19.237 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
| 19.132 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 17.802 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 13.585 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 13.417 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| 13.249 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 11.512 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 11.354 | Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025? | Binary |
| 9.700 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 8.923 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| 6.062 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| 5.692 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 5.692 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 5.692 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 5.692 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 5.692 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear) | Binary |
| 5.692 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 5.613 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 2.428 | Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 0.737 | Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.122 | Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025? | Binary |
| -0.468 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No) | Binary |
| -1.465 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| -7.059 | When will US government 10-year bond yields next exceed 2-year bond yields? | Continuous |
| -11.972 | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| -12.501 | Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election? | Binary |
| -12.861 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| -15.693 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| -21.361 | Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025? | Binary |
| -21.368 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| -23.726 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| -25.714 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -34.954 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| -35.619 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -74.794 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| -82.717 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -99.682 | Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025? | Binary |
| -107.972 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| -254.739 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |