draaglom

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

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6763	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
142.414	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX)	Continuous
139.119	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX)	Continuous
105.666	How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024?	Continuous
99.338	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
97.350	Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?	Binary
96.805	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
96.715	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
96.206	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
95.407	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
94.349	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
93.944	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
93.264	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
93.080	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
92.713	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
92.388	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
92.354	Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?	Binary
92.278	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
92.094	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
92.051	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024)	Binary
90.996	Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections?	Binary
90.453	On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Multiple Choice
89.897	Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?	Binary
89.630	Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?	Binary
89.350	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
88.965	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
88.964	Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?	Binary
88.465	Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?	Binary
87.831	Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?	Binary
86.514	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
86.350	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
86.126	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
85.960	Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024?	Multiple Choice
85.846	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
85.631	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
85.166	Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?	Binary
85.020	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
84.627	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
84.462	By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025?	Continuous
84.413	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
83.837	Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?	Binary
83.821	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
83.764	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?	Binary
83.476	Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024?	Binary
82.784	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
82.538	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
82.296	What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024?	Multiple Choice
82.261	Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?	Binary
81.380	Who will win the Tour de France 2024?	Multiple Choice
80.561	Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?	Binary
79.878	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
79.814	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
78.424	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?	Binary
77.233	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
76.998	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024)	Binary
76.876	Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?	Binary
75.289	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Continuous
74.617	Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?	Binary
73.824	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?	Binary
73.623	Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024?	Binary
73.353	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
72.363	Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?	Binary
71.887	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
71.448	[Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election?	Binary
70.539	Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term?	Binary
70.489	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
70.236	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
68.130	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
67.548	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
67.244	Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?	Binary
67.137	Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?	Binary
65.745	Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?	Binary
65.619	How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Multiple Choice
65.225	Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024?	Binary
64.774	Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?	Binary
64.201	What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024?	Continuous
61.139	Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?	Binary
60.102	What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024?	Continuous
58.282	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024?	Continuous
57.488	Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Multiple Choice
57.135	How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
57.056	What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Continuous
56.752	How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Multiple Choice
55.590	[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?	Binary
54.460	Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?	Binary
54.239	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?	Binary
54.097	On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap?	Binary
53.552	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
52.415	Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025?	Binary
52.023	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
51.342	Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting?	Multiple Choice
50.721	Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?	Binary
49.378	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
48.786	What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024?	Continuous
47.512	When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers?	Continuous
47.445	What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024?	Continuous
47.181	Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?	Binary
46.019	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Continuous
45.996	What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary?	Continuous
45.837	Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Multiple Choice
44.324	What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024?	Continuous
43.897	Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?	Binary
40.716	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
40.158	Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections?	Multiple Choice
40.030	Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?	Binary
39.808	Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?	Binary
39.087	What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024?	Continuous
37.961	Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest?	Multiple Choice
37.436	What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024?	Continuous
36.980	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
36.635	For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl?	Continuous
36.424	Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?	Binary
35.141	How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024?	Multiple Choice
34.741	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
34.434	Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?	Binary
34.208	Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?	Binary
34.106	What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA?	Continuous
34.089	Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024?	Binary
32.996	Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final?	Multiple Choice
32.024	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024?	Continuous
31.870	Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024?	Binary
31.693	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
29.054	Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024?	Binary
27.104	When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
25.967	How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024?	Multiple Choice
23.860	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
23.810	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
23.058	Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?	Binary
22.512	How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?	Continuous
20.216	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
17.665	Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024?	Multiple Choice
17.543	What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024?	Multiple Choice
16.740	By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting?	Multiple Choice
15.219	Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?	Binary
15.201	What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024?	Continuous
13.292	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (5)	Binary
13.246	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (4)	Binary
13.246	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (6)	Binary
13.246	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (7 or more)	Binary
12.925	Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff?	Binary
10.229	Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024?	Binary
9.317	What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD?	Continuous
9.299	How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election?	Continuous
8.136	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
4.289	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
4.282	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
3.980	Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025?	Binary
3.279	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
3.255	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
3.088	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
2.391	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.765	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024?	Continuous
0.028	Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Multiple Choice
-2.291	Will the Georgian Dream party win a majority of seats in Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections?	Binary
-5.597	Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024?	Binary
-8.998	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
-11.326	Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025?	Binary
-15.089	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?	Binary
-15.205	Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?	Binary
-18.506	Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?	Binary
-19.687	When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
-20.478	Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-26.494	Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?	Binary
-26.583	What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs?	Continuous
-34.156	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-38.762	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
-40.972	How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-42.902	How many probable dengue cases will be reported in Brazil in 2024 as of April 5, 2024?	Continuous
-44.982	Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?	Binary
-47.203	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-51.738	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024?	Continuous
-54.406	What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024?	Continuous
-55.745	Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?	Binary
-67.585	Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech?	Binary
-73.375	Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-74.017	Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-81.412	Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?	Binary
-83.515	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
-83.563	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-92.467	Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?	Binary
-96.977	Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason?	Binary
-106.584	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
-162.311	Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?	Binary
-257.830	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary
-287.051	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary