pasta

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

4623	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
143.542	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX)	Continuous
142.750	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX)	Continuous
99.183	Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?	Binary
98.395	Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
97.685	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
97.088	Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections?	Binary
97.085	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
97.011	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
96.493	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
95.606	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
94.855	Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?	Binary
94.232	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
93.761	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
92.987	Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?	Binary
91.501	Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?	Binary
91.382	Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?	Binary
90.779	Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024?	Multiple Choice
90.141	Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024?	Multiple Choice
89.144	Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?	Multiple Choice
88.858	Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024?	Binary
87.202	Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?	Binary
86.701	Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?	Binary
86.421	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
84.761	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
84.451	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024)	Binary
83.987	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
83.508	Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?	Binary
82.930	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
82.412	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
82.350	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
80.974	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
78.824	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
77.424	Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?	Binary
76.593	Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?	Binary
75.591	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
73.950	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
73.914	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024?	Continuous
71.357	Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term?	Binary
70.832	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?	Binary
65.364	What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024?	Continuous
64.327	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024)	Binary
64.023	Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024?	Binary
62.886	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
62.672	What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024?	Continuous
62.559	Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024?	Binary
62.460	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
62.115	What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024?	Continuous
60.494	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
59.507	Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?	Binary
59.354	What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs?	Continuous
59.268	Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?	Binary
58.046	Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting?	Multiple Choice
58.014	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
56.958	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
54.683	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
50.029	What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024?	Continuous
47.023	Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran?	Binary
44.548	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
43.736	Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024?	Multiple Choice
42.628	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?	Binary
40.923	What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024?	Continuous
38.213	What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary?	Continuous
37.061	Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?	Binary
36.798	For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl?	Continuous
35.493	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
34.963	Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final?	Multiple Choice
33.635	Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024?	Binary
33.086	On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX?	Continuous
32.574	Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth?	Multiple Choice
31.550	How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election?	Continuous
31.216	Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?	Binary
31.129	Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024?	Binary
30.403	Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest?	Multiple Choice
28.429	What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024?	Continuous
26.726	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
25.708	Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024?	Binary
25.195	Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff?	Binary
24.314	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
22.938	Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024?	Binary
21.130	When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers?	Continuous
20.298	Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?	Binary
18.182	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
18.125	If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government?	Multiple Choice
16.774	When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
16.630	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024?	Continuous
16.075	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
13.456	Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?	Binary
11.799	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
11.754	When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers?	Continuous
10.233	What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024?	Continuous
9.404	What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024?	Multiple Choice
7.327	Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024?	Binary
6.073	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024?	Continuous
6.041	Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?	Binary
3.621	Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?	Binary
2.723	Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?	Binary
2.273	[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?	Binary
-0.028	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-1.100	Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-1.180	Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly?	Binary
-4.669	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
-4.743	How many probable dengue cases will be reported in Brazil in 2024 as of April 5, 2024?	Continuous
-7.349	What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term?	Multiple Choice
-7.653	Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-8.480	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-12.891	How disproportional will the 2024 Indian election be?	Continuous
-14.932	Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?	Binary
-15.973	What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD?	Continuous
-16.628	Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-18.172	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
-18.403	Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?	Binary
-18.827	How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024?	Continuous
-20.689	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
-23.021	Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-25.119	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
-31.110	How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024?	Continuous
-35.882	Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?	Binary
-45.223	Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?	Binary
-50.861	Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason?	Binary
-65.931	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
-66.036	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-68.770	Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-71.378	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
-85.990	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?	Binary
-155.181	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary