GarrettWhite

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

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3948	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
137.888	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
124.400	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
115.335	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
97.533	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
97.159	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
94.894	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
91.108	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
88.973	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
88.647	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
87.961	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
86.464	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
84.828	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
83.916	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
83.571	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
82.821	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
82.789	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
79.539	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
79.492	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
77.586	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
75.902	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25)	Binary
75.124	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Operating Expenses)	Continuous
74.481	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
73.400	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
72.719	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
72.290	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
71.471	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
71.209	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (Revenue)	Continuous
70.446	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
69.119	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
65.354	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
64.004	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
62.578	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Gross Margin)	Continuous
62.402	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
61.309	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
59.175	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 18 - Aug 29)	Continuous
58.426	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
55.196	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
55.033	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
53.072	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
53.072	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
52.894	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
52.063	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
52.001	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
49.460	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
49.018	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29)	Continuous
48.325	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
48.319	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
45.490	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
43.835	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
43.710	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
43.599	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
43.065	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
42.622	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (July 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
41.404	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 18 - Aug 29)	Continuous
40.480	Will a participant reach the $750 comment prize cap in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Binary
40.400	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
40.017	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20)	Continuous
39.592	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
39.376	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
37.726	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
36.754	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
36.071	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
36.027	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
35.124	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
34.902	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29)	Continuous
32.078	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
32.047	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
31.985	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
30.476	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
30.130	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
29.840	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
29.518	Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
29.126	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29)	Continuous
28.491	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
28.050	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
28.033	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
27.946	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
27.616	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
27.059	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
26.397	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
25.869	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
25.012	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29)	Continuous
24.781	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
23.505	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
23.436	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 27)	Continuous
23.350	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
22.567	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
21.377	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
20.427	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
17.947	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
17.928	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
16.670	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
16.461	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
16.292	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, June 2025)	Binary
15.902	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
14.855	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
14.628	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
13.923	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
13.830	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
13.620	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
12.854	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
12.061	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
11.896	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
10.212	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 16 - Jun 27)	Binary
10.068	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23)	Continuous
9.351	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
7.581	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
7.576	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, June 2025)	Binary
6.897	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
6.869	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
6.425	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
6.220	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
5.349	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
4.434	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
4.409	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29)	Continuous
4.054	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
1.022	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
0.957	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
0.386	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
0.241	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
-1.790	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
-2.924	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
-4.915	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
-6.723	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (HOOD)	Binary
-7.030	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
-7.697	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
-7.728	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
-8.009	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
-8.901	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-9.258	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
-11.264	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
-14.105	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
-16.642	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
-22.817	Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?	Binary
-24.179	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
-25.242	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13)	Binary
-32.907	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
-32.980	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29)	Continuous
-35.856	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
-38.312	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
-38.386	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
-41.576	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
-47.473	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
-54.343	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
-57.583	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
-77.700	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-172.010	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-525.103	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary