🤖 Greatken1

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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412.1	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
81.235	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Sep 1 - Sep 12)	Continuous
81.002	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
74.633	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
73.304	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 1 - Sep 12)	Continuous
69.332	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Sep 1 - Sep 12)	Continuous
66.525	Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?	Binary
66.494	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
66.113	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
65.710	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 1 - Sep 12)	Continuous
61.007	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
59.374	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
57.847	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
57.554	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Sep 1 - Sep 12)	Continuous
57.042	Will the United States and Denmark announce formal negotiations over the possible transfer of sovereignty of Greenland to the United States before 2026?	Binary
54.948	Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?	Binary
54.328	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (Limits on share buybacks)	Binary
53.001	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
52.032	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
48.575	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
47.346	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
46.104	Will the National Archivist certify and publish the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution by June 30, 2025?	Binary
45.800	Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?	Binary
45.484	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Operating Expenses)	Continuous
43.126	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
42.330	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
42.050	Will Elizabeth MacDonough, the current Senate parliamentarian, be removed or resign by June 30, 2025?	Binary
40.947	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
38.274	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
38.076	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 1 - Sep 12)	Continuous
37.762	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
37.512	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, June 2025)	Binary
36.486	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
34.366	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
34.357	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (Capped credits)	Binary
33.993	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
32.147	Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?	Binary
29.957	Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025?	Binary
29.957	Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?	Binary
29.692	What will happen to the adders to tax credits established by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, before 2026?	Multiple Choice
29.126	Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released in Europe in 2025?	Binary
27.780	Will the world's five largest companies at the end of 2025 be in the tech sector?	Binary
27.780	Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?	Binary
27.322	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
27.123	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
26.859	Will Bluesky reach 100 million users before the end of 2025?	Binary
26.592	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
25.650	Will Spain's economy grow more than the Eurozone's between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025?	Binary
25.440	Will the highest-grossing film of 2025 be part of a franchise?	Binary
25.248	Will the 2017 TCJA Individual Tax Cuts Be Extended Using a "Current Policy" Baseline in Senate Reconciliation?	Binary
24.956	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
24.467	Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?	Binary
24.442	Will Pedro Sánchez still be president of Spain at the end of 2025?	Binary
24.163	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 1 - Sep 12)	Continuous
23.740	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45Q carbon capture tax credit established by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
23.721	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
23.368	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, June 2025)	Binary
22.966	Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?	Binary
21.421	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
21.409	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
21.009	Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?	Binary
20.880	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
20.880	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
20.342	Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?	Binary
19.946	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
19.246	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
18.850	Will housing prices in Madrid rise by more than 18% in 2025?	Binary
17.445	Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
16.962	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
15.805	Will the Strait of Hormuz be closed before 2026?	Binary
14.551	Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?	Binary
13.625	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
13.429	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (FEOC exclusion)	Binary
13.307	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
13.161	Will Microsoft stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
13.140	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?	Binary
13.128	Will legislation enacted before January 1, 2026 eliminate the transferability of any of these clean energy tax credits (§48E ITC, §45Y PTC, §45X AMPC)?	Binary
12.252	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
12.004	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
11.355	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
11.184	Will at least two of the United States, Russia or China mutually agree to decrease their nuclear stockpiles before 2026?	Binary
10.801	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
10.684	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
9.503	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9)	Continuous
9.310	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
7.799	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
7.178	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (ARES)	Binary
6.722	When in 2025 will President Donald Trump sign into a law a reconciliation bill?	Multiple Choice
6.555	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
5.970	Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?	Binary
5.927	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
5.246	Will the PSOE finish 2025 ahead of the PP in the polls average?	Binary
5.164	What will happen next with respect to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act's $7,500 tax credit for US individuals who purchase an EV (30D)?	Multiple Choice
4.125	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
2.274	Will the Department of Justice or Education open a civil compliance investigation into whether diversity-related programs at Harvard constitute illegal discrimination or preferences before 2026?	Binary
1.787	Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
1.011	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
0.651	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
0.470	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
0.000	Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?	Binary
-	Will Vox surpass the 27% voting intention among young people in Spain by the end of 2025?	Binary
-0.279	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
-1.324	Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?	Binary
-2.808	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23)	Continuous
-3.690	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45V (hydrogen) tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
-4.554	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
-8.631	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (Revenue)	Continuous
-11.168	Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-11.932	In 2025, will IRA's Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits (45Χ) start requiring the use of domestic materials or subcomponents?	Binary
-15.437	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
-19.760	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
-20.694	Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season?	Binary
-25.993	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13)	Binary
-26.634	Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?	Binary
-27.496	Will the Department of Homeland Security revoke or suspend the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) certification for an Ivy League university before September 1, 2025?	Binary
-28.302	Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?	Binary
-30.000	Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?	Binary
-36.373	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
-36.558	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
-37.859	Will Bitcoin close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
-38.435	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
-38.964	Who will win Big Brother 27 (US)?	Multiple Choice
-39.094	In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Production Tax Credits (45Y)?	Binary
-40.047	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (HOOD)	Binary
-41.882	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
-44.022	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
-44.700	Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?	Binary
-47.385	What will be the percentage increase for the minimum wage in Colombia for 2026?	Continuous
-47.773	Will Kylian Mbappé be the top scorer in LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25?	Binary
-49.819	Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?	Binary
-51.188	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that partially or fully exempts at least one executive branch department, the CIA, or EPA from the Freedom of Information Act?	Binary
-52.627	In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Investment Tax Credits (48Ε)?	Binary
-54.212	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-60.991	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?	Binary
-64.410	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill increase the deficit from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
-66.327	Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025?	Binary
-76.033	Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?	Binary
-78.303	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
-78.369	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill decrease total Medicaid spending from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
-88.879	Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-96.510	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
-105.754	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
-107.025	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Gross Margin)	Continuous
-131.721	Will a participant reach the $750 comment prize cap in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Binary
-145.565	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 1 - Sep 12)	Continuous
-191.956	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
-259.524	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary