bzial

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2019

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

5.9	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
49.906	What will be the IMDB score of The Expanse Season 4 one week after it has been aired?	Continuous
40.272	Will the current Ebola outbreak claim more than 1000 lives?	Binary
34.049	Will PewDiePie be the first YouTuber to have 100M subscribers?	Binary
31.728	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in September 2019?	Binary
31.195	When will Jeremy Corbyn cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
30.441	Will the number of Yellow-Vests-affiliated protesters in France decline?	Binary
27.454	Will Tesla have a higher market capitalization than Ford on 01 January 2020?	Binary
24.285	Will Mitt Romney challenge Donald Trump in the Republican Primaries for the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
23.566	How many seats will the Conservative and Unionist Party win in the next UK general election?	Continuous
21.516	Will Election Betting Odds report a >60% chance of a Trump 2020 presidential election victory by November 30, 2019?	Binary
19.525	Will the identity of the author of anonymous NYT editorial become known in 2019?	Binary
19.355	[Short Fuse] What will this question's interest score be on October 3rd?	Continuous
19.132	Will there be rioting in the UK or Gibraltar if the UK is still in the EU on 30 March 2019?	Binary
18.196	By the end of 2019, will AlphaStar have won > 80% of its games against top players?	Binary
17.928	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in 2019?	Binary
17.729	If Donald Trump is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, will the U.S. Senate take the referral to a vote?	Binary
17.593	Will the UK's Conservative Government fall before 2020?	Binary
15.945	Will President Trump meet Kim Jong-un for a second time before April 2019?	Binary
13.812	Will the S&P 500 end 2019 higher?	Binary
13.759	Before 30 November 2019, will it be announced that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free trade agreement negotiations have concluded?	Binary
12.893	Will the UK revoke Article 50 by June 23 2020?	Binary
12.789	Will the current Ebola outbreak in the DRC be ongoing after February 2020?	Binary
12.724	Will the United States continue to be the country with the largest share of computational power in the November 2019 TOP500?	Binary
12.028	Will Czech Republic's Prime Minister Andrej Babiš experience a significant leadership disruption between 20 June 2019 and 22 August 2019?	Binary
10.842	Will either the Japanese or Norwegian government blame Iran for the June 2019 Gulf of Oman incident?	Binary
10.815	Will the Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) have an IPO before 30 November 2019?	Binary
9.962	How many seats will the Labour and Co-operative Parties win in the next UK general election?	Continuous
9.773	Will there be more ArXiv AI publications in the “Computation and Language” subcategory than in the “Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition” subcategory in the calendar year 2019?	Binary
9.666	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q3 - Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018	Binary
9.323	How much will be pledged on the Metaculus Patreon on its halfaversary?	Continuous
8.492	Will an EU country veto an extension of Brexit's deliberation before Oct 31st 2019?	Binary
8.399	Before 30 November 2019, will an Ebola health worker be injured or killed in an attack against an Ebola facility inside the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, or Tanzania?	Binary
8.366	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in August 2019?	Binary
7.739	How much will Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker make in its opening weekend?	Continuous
7.243	[Short Fuse] During the 7 days starting August 7th 2019, will the Google search volume for "Hong Kong protest" spike to at least 25% of its all time peak?	Binary
7.073	What will be the best sales rank number in 2019 for the book Cosmological Koans?	Continuous
5.814	Will the Liberal Party of Canada win the most seats in the next Canadian general election?	Binary
5.804	Will Algeria hold Presidential Election in 2019?	Binary
5.202	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2020?	Binary
5.154	Between 23 May 2019 and 29 November 2019, will the IMF approve one or more tranches for release to Ukraine?	Binary
4.310	Between 23 May 2019 and 30 July 2019, will the Spanish monarch appoint a President of the Government?	Binary
4.172	If Donald J. Trump is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, how many articles of impeachment will be brought to the U.S. Senate?	Continuous
4.023	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be indicted?	Binary
4.018	Will US troops intervene in Venezuela?	Binary
2.894	Will SpaceX start testing a Starship (BFS) before 2020?	Binary
2.352	Will any piece of art be sold for more than $450.3 million in 2019?	Binary
2.238	Will Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 be found in 2019?	Binary
1.340	Will Oman be removed from the EU list of non-cooperative tax jurisdictions between 20 June 2019 and 31 October 2019?	Binary
1.154	Will the UK leave the EU without a deal by April 12th?	Binary
0.546	Will Elon Musk still be CEO of Tesla on January 1, 2020?	Binary
0.362	Will North Korea fail to send the U.S. a Christmas Gift?	Binary
-0.032	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q1 - The United Kingdom will leave the European Union in 2019?	Binary
-0.840	Will Carnegie Mellon be the top university accepted to NeurIPS 2019?	Binary
-0.934	Will OpenAI Five win against the reigning Dota 2 world champions OG?	Binary
-4.121	Will Brexit happen by end of day, October 31st, 2019?	Binary
-4.212	How many Republican U.S. senators will vote to convict on at least one article of impeachment, if Trump is impeached by the House during his first term?	Continuous
-6.437	Before 30 November 2019, will Germany's Bundestag adopt a bill that would impose a fine on parents who refuse a measles vaccine for their children?	Binary
-14.153	How many homicides will there be in London in 2019?	Continuous
-16.325	Attempted crewed Boeing CST-100 Starliner flight prior to 2020?	Binary
-21.314	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q5 - No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019	Binary
-25.353	Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2019?	Binary
-32.994	Will the International Crisis Group report a deteriorated situation for Iran in July 2019?	Binary
-33.979	Will Chandrayaan-2 softly land on the moon in September 2019?	Binary
-36.181	British Pound / Euro parity before January 1st, 2020?	Binary
-41.459	Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit $30,000 before it hits $20,000?	Binary
-67.186	Will Joe Biden run for President in 2020?	Binary