PeterWildeford

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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16.15		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
137.620	88.4%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
92.035	97.7%	When will GTA VI be released in the US?	Continuous
74.167	99.4%	When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?	Continuous
70.572	94.7%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
70.264	86.5%	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
63.686	81.5%	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
46.321	82.4%	When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?	Continuous
43.238	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
41.315	92.5%	Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?	Binary
40.356	72.9%	What percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?	Continuous
34.850	98.1%	Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?	Binary
34.475	69.1%	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
33.834	43.4%	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
33.831	38.3%	What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?	Continuous
32.293	95.6%	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
30.266	98.8%	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
27.864	91.4%	Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?	Continuous
26.293	98.5%	Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?	Binary
26.142	95.0%	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
25.812	84.2%	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
25.794	96.7%	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
24.095	93.4%	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
22.851	93.6%	At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?	Binary
21.309	92.2%	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?	Continuous
20.988	99.3%	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?	Continuous
19.507	71.7%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
19.379	81.7%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
18.770	21.0%	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
17.546	98.0%	What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?	Continuous
16.925	99.9%	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
16.422	94.8%	Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?	Binary
16.067	57.7%	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
15.997	25.7%	When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?	Continuous
15.384	99.9%	Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?	Binary
15.347	97.7%	Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
15.169	97.9%	Will Trump flee the United States?	Binary
15.017	99.4%	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
14.731	90.7%	What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?	Continuous
14.461	17.7%	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
13.988	92.2%	What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?	Continuous
13.222	93.1%	Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?	Binary
13.130	67.5%	When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
13.006	87.4%	Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?	Binary
12.814	66.2%	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
12.625	81.6%	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
12.580	65.9%	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
12.402	86.8%	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
12.365	39.1%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
12.287	28.9%	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
12.252	24.0%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
11.721	46.8%	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
11.624	70.3%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
11.596	52.3%	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
11.539	99.8%	What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates? (December 14, 2024)	Continuous
11.426	68.1%	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
10.806	80.9%	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	Binary
10.797	43.6%	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
10.787	43.6%	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
10.522	87.3%	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
10.260	34.0%	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
10.258	84.6%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
10.146	40.4%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
10.124	86.4%	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
9.767	63.8%	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
9.360	60.9%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
9.312	55.6%	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
9.163	82.2%	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
8.852	35.6%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
8.730	92.5%	Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?	Binary
8.641	61.2%	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
8.330	97.0%	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
7.860	82.8%	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
7.736	29.6%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
7.594	94.2%	Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?	Binary
7.505	91.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
6.890	85.5%	How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?	Continuous
6.866	90.2%	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
6.513	22.8%	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
6.406	48.7%	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
6.336	31.2%	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
6.325	72.9%	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
6.251	59.8%	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
6.248	52.5%	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
5.731	67.9%	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
5.505	93.0%	Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?	Binary
5.408	97.3%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
4.970	99.7%	How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?	Continuous
4.853	10.9%	Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?	Binary
4.825	35.1%	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
4.351	10.5%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
4.167	27.4%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
4.163	35.0%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
3.837	88.2%	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
3.749	41.4%	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
3.357	68.1%	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
2.920	92.9%	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
2.916	7.7%	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
2.613	7.9%	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
2.440	15.9%	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
2.403	55.3%	When will be the next S&P 500 correction?	Continuous
2.374	98.8%	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
2.134	4.7%	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
1.958	88.0%	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
1.943	68.3%	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
1.902	70.2%	Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?	Binary
1.893	24.8%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
1.639	84.5%	Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?	Binary
1.323	87.3%	What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?	Continuous
1.260	3.3%	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
1.258	53.3%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
1.212	32.2%	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
1.155	10.5%	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
0.569	3.9%	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
0.478	0.8%	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
0.458	1.6%	When will the VIX index fall below 20?	Continuous
0.125	3.0%	Will another paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022?	Binary
0.119	0.9%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?	Binary
0.025	0.3%	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
-0.014	5.1%	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
-0.754	87.6%	What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?	Continuous
-0.948	99.8%	Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?	Binary
-0.985	97.2%	Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?	Binary
-1.579	92.4%	What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?	Continuous
-2.165	76.7%	Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-2.658	76.7%	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-3.036	76.7%	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-3.389	88.5%	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous
-3.784	69.6%	What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?	Continuous
-4.937	24.2%	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
-5.374	99.8%	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
-5.745	85.7%	If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?	Binary
-6.101	48.9%	Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?	Binary
-6.217	80.8%	Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023?	Binary
-6.242	34.5%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
-6.849	97.7%	How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?	Continuous
-7.802	98.1%	What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)	Continuous
-8.277	99.7%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
-8.414	97.7%	How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?	Continuous
-10.532	76.7%	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-10.592	41.4%	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
-13.074	99.4%	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?	Continuous
-17.136	91.9%	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous
-24.881	90.3%	Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?	Continuous
-26.415	84.3%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
-101.544	82.0%	In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?	Continuous