Morpheus

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2019

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

5.645	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
33.814	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in September 2019?	Binary
33.319	Before 30 November 2019, will an Ebola health worker be injured or killed in an attack against an Ebola facility inside the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, or Tanzania?	Binary
23.446	Will Brexit happen by end of day, October 31st, 2019?	Binary
22.500	How many seats will the People's Party of Canada win in the next Canadian election?	Continuous
20.868	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in August 2019?	Binary
20.128	Will Nabil Karoui win the popular vote on the first round of the September 2019 Tunisian Election?	Binary
16.907	By the end of 2019, will AlphaStar have won > 80% of its games against top players?	Binary
16.241	If Donald J. Trump is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, how many articles of impeachment will be brought to the U.S. Senate?	Continuous
13.469	How many civilians will be killed in Syria in September 2019, according to the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR)?	Continuous
11.737	Will the International Crisis Group report a deteriorated situation for Iran in July 2019?	Binary
10.799	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in 2019?	Binary
9.934	Will there be more ArXiv AI publications in the “Computation and Language” subcategory than in the “Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition” subcategory in the calendar year 2019?	Binary
9.050	Will Election Betting Odds report a >60% chance of a Trump 2020 presidential election victory by November 30, 2019?	Binary
8.879	[Short Fuse] During the 7 days starting August 7th 2019, will the Google search volume for "Hong Kong protest" spike to at least 25% of its all time peak?	Binary
8.042	Will Iran execute or be targeted in a national military attack between 6 June 2019 and 5 October 2019?	Binary
7.974	[Short Fuse] What will this question's interest score be on October 3rd?	Continuous
7.223	Between 23 May 2019 and 30 July 2019, will the Spanish monarch appoint a President of the Government?	Binary
6.535	Will the United States continue to be the country with the largest share of computational power in the November 2019 TOP500?	Binary
6.492	[Short Fuse] Will more than 10% of flights departing from Hong Kong Intl. Airport be cancelled on the 16th of August 2019?	Binary
6.208	Will an EU country veto an extension of Brexit's deliberation before Oct 31st 2019?	Binary
5.165	Will the UK revoke Article 50 by June 23 2020?	Binary
5.013	Will the current Ebola outbreak in the DRC be ongoing after February 2020?	Binary
4.807	Will Czech Republic's Prime Minister Andrej Babiš experience a significant leadership disruption between 20 June 2019 and 22 August 2019?	Binary
4.374	British Pound / Euro parity before January 1st, 2020?	Binary
2.770	Will the Liberal Party of Canada win the most seats in the next Canadian general election?	Binary
1.936	How many seats will the Conservative and Unionist Party win in the next UK general election?	Continuous
1.522	Will Oman be removed from the EU list of non-cooperative tax jurisdictions between 20 June 2019 and 31 October 2019?	Binary
1.282	How many seats will the Labour and Co-operative Parties win in the next UK general election?	Continuous
0.644	When will Jeremy Corbyn cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
0.462	What will be the best sales rank number in 2019 for the book Cosmological Koans?	Continuous
0.358	Will North Korea fail to send the U.S. a Christmas Gift?	Binary
0.166	Will either the Japanese or Norwegian government blame Iran for the June 2019 Gulf of Oman incident?	Binary
0.035	How many Republican U.S. senators will vote to convict on at least one article of impeachment, if Trump is impeached by the House during his first term?	Continuous
0.027	Will the identity of the author of anonymous NYT editorial become known in 2019?	Binary
-2.982	Between 23 May 2019 and 29 November 2019, will the IMF approve one or more tranches for release to Ukraine?	Binary
-7.579	Before 30 November 2019, will Germany's Bundestag adopt a bill that would impose a fine on parents who refuse a measles vaccine for their children?	Binary
-8.943	What will be the IMDB score of The Expanse Season 4 one week after it has been aired?	Continuous
-13.503	[Short Fuse] Will no Prime Minister of Italy be named in August 2019?	Binary
-18.893	How much will Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker make in its opening weekend?	Continuous
-44.433	Will Chandrayaan-2 softly land on the moon in September 2019?	Binary