Zweihander

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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8.284		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
126.855	97.1%	When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?	Continuous
118.824	98.9%	What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?	Continuous
110.137	93.4%	When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?	Continuous
94.856	98.7%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?	Continuous
82.455	99.7%	How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?	Continuous
81.455	94.8%	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
79.980	92.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
74.950	97.5%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
72.378	98.2%	When will GTA VI be released in the US?	Continuous
72.130	100.0%	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
71.504	98.5%	What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?	Continuous
68.415	100.0%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
67.971	99.1%	Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?	Continuous
64.740	99.9%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
57.226	45.7%	By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?	Binary
57.158	93.0%	What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?	Continuous
50.013	98.0%	When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?	Continuous
49.771	99.7%	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
49.384	98.3%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
48.675	83.8%	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?	Continuous
47.880	93.5%	If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?	Continuous
47.147	100.0%	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
46.746	99.8%	How many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be approved for consumption by the FDA on July 31, 2025?	Continuous
46.572	93.4%	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
44.661	99.1%	When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?	Continuous
43.843	91.1%	When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
43.509	97.7%	When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?	Continuous
42.491	100.0%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
41.693	93.5%	As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	Continuous
40.628	99.2%	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
40.184	97.6%	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
39.938	94.2%	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
39.919	99.5%	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
38.754	90.6%	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
38.694	100.0%	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
37.693	97.0%	Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?	Binary
37.471	94.1%	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
37.028	80.1%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?	Binary
36.593	100.0%	Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?	Binary
34.733	93.3%	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
34.602	99.3%	Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?	Binary
34.313	95.9%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
33.299	84.9%	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
33.235	97.8%	What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates? (December 14, 2024)	Continuous
33.103	99.4%	What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?	Continuous
33.050	98.5%	How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?	Continuous
32.823	63.4%	Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?	Continuous
32.529	89.8%	When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
32.379	99.2%	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
31.776	94.6%	Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?	Binary
31.398	100.0%	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
29.833	96.9%	Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?	Binary
29.114	92.2%	What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)	Continuous
29.019	96.8%	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	Continuous
28.871	99.9%	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
27.059	90.0%	At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?	Binary
26.462	98.3%	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
26.438	98.3%	What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?	Continuous
25.916	87.2%	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
25.830	100.0%	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
25.490	90.3%	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
25.204	100.0%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
24.014	98.1%	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
23.676	93.9%	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
23.636	55.7%	Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?	Binary
23.482	100.0%	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
23.367	100.0%	Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?	Binary
23.205	88.9%	Will Trump flee the United States?	Binary
22.952	100.0%	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
22.900	96.2%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
21.889	100.0%	Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?	Binary
21.498	90.9%	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
20.685	99.9%	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
19.972	99.4%	How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?	Continuous
19.922	100.0%	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
19.497	86.7%	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
18.397	45.7%	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
17.470	69.9%	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
17.282	100.0%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
17.009	99.7%	What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?	Continuous
16.326	99.3%	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
16.275	96.0%	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
16.158	64.8%	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
16.143	71.3%	Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?	Binary
15.733	99.1%	Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?	Binary
15.524	61.8%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
15.499	100.0%	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
15.407	100.0%	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
14.704	98.4%	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
14.579	99.6%	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
14.218	92.8%	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
13.964	100.0%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
13.714	99.7%	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
13.617	56.5%	When will be the next S&P 500 correction?	Continuous
13.545	100.0%	When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?	Continuous
13.458	99.9%	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
13.370	91.2%	Will China launch an "artificial moon" by 2025?	Binary
13.210	94.5%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
12.920	86.6%	What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?	Continuous
12.902	94.0%	What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?	Continuous
12.900	90.0%	Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?	Binary
12.569	38.7%	Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?	Binary
12.495	97.2%	Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?	Binary
12.148	67.3%	When will the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) definitely spot its first neutrino(s)?	Continuous
12.044	34.8%	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
11.910	99.8%	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
11.425	99.7%	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
11.018	100.0%	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
10.943	19.4%	When will the VIX index fall below 20?	Continuous
10.594	91.9%	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
10.352	98.7%	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	Binary
9.819	99.7%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
9.815	99.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
9.761	26.9%	When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?	Continuous
9.410	93.9%	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous
9.399	99.9%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
9.394	99.8%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
9.356	89.2%	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
9.321	100.0%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
9.205	100.0%	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
9.072	90.0%	Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?	Binary
9.067	100.0%	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
8.985	99.2%	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
8.778	99.9%	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
8.688	76.2%	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
8.646	100.0%	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
8.615	97.7%	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
8.301	99.7%	What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?	Continuous
7.331	100.0%	What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?	Continuous
7.287	40.2%	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
7.275	15.1%	When will the first exaflop performer appear?	Continuous
7.084	17.1%	How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?	Continuous
6.474	96.7%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
6.025	21.5%	How many countries will be awarded a B or better for farm animal welfare protection by to the Animal Protection Index by end of 2022?	Continuous
5.419	97.1%	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
5.417	96.6%	Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?	Binary
5.397	100.0%	When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours?	Continuous
5.224	99.4%	When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?	Continuous
4.936	99.9%	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
4.408	43.0%	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
4.404	99.9%	What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?	Continuous
4.189	93.2%	How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?	Continuous
3.935	94.0%	Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?	Continuous
3.654	97.8%	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
3.319	99.5%	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
3.246	49.5%	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
3.131	99.8%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
2.930	99.9%	Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?	Binary
2.711	94.5%	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
2.554	99.9%	Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?	Binary
2.328	9.2%	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
2.305	3.2%	When will US auto manufacturing recover to 80% of pre-COVID-19 production levels?	Continuous
2.303	100.0%	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
2.121	99.9%	Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?	Binary
1.810	99.7%	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
1.789	99.7%	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
1.682	90.9%	What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?	Continuous
1.404	10.7%	Will another paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022?	Binary
1.123	98.9%	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
0.819	3.3%	Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?	Binary
0.348	2.4%	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
0.338	5.0%	By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?	Binary
0.147	5.3%	Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?	Binary
-0.286	89.7%	What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?	Continuous
-0.425	90.1%	How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?	Continuous
-0.575	99.3%	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
-0.702	88.1%	How much concern about climate change will exist in 2025, according to Google Trends?	Continuous
-0.807	97.5%	How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?	Continuous
-0.888	100.0%	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
-1.491	87.9%	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?	Continuous
-1.557	99.7%	How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
-1.678	62.7%	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
-1.689	57.5%	LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?	Continuous
-1.964	51.0%	When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?	Continuous
-1.964	54.7%	Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?	Binary
-2.863	35.7%	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
-3.128	76.7%	Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?	Binary
-3.173	100.0%	How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?	Continuous
-3.280	79.3%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
-3.294	52.6%	Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)	Binary
-3.330	99.1%	Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?	Binary
-3.605	99.6%	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
-4.049	94.4%	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?	Continuous
-4.329	99.8%	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
-4.539	34.3%	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
-4.785	99.2%	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
-4.896	12.2%	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L4)	Continuous
-4.943	68.4%	When will the Apple car be unveiled?	Continuous
-5.070	90.1%	How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?	Continuous
-5.556	58.9%	Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?	Binary
-5.585	52.9%	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
-5.607	97.1%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
-5.640	18.1%	Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022?	Binary
-6.292	24.2%	When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur?	Continuous
-6.407	99.7%	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
-6.811	99.0%	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
-7.093	100.0%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
-7.811	98.2%	Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?	Binary
-7.914	99.3%	By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?	Binary
-8.064	100.0%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
-8.639	98.7%	Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023?	Binary
-8.962	95.0%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
-9.087	96.3%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
-9.336	99.7%	Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?	Binary
-9.601	99.9%	When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?	Continuous
-9.649	99.0%	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
-9.718	95.5%	Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?	Binary
-10.263	100.0%	What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?	Continuous
-10.277	99.2%	Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?	Binary
-10.373	99.3%	Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?	Binary
-10.387	99.9%	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
-11.098	99.0%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
-11.217	50.0%	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
-11.866	100.0%	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
-12.642	77.9%	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-13.073	93.9%	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
-13.270	90.7%	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
-13.287	99.8%	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
-13.483	99.5%	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
-13.531	97.9%	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-14.392	44.1%	Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?	Binary
-15.107	48.0%	When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?	Continuous
-15.367	83.9%	Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?	Binary
-15.894	100.0%	Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?	Binary
-16.139	74.6%	Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?	Binary
-16.280	98.5%	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-16.383	62.6%	Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?	Binary
-17.318	100.0%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
-17.342	97.5%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?	Binary
-17.748	93.5%	What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?	Continuous
-18.418	100.0%	How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?	Continuous
-18.925	99.1%	On December 1, 2023, how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?	Continuous
-19.136	92.3%	What percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?	Continuous
-20.103	95.0%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
-20.339	99.7%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
-20.483	93.3%	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
-20.714	90.1%	Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
-21.057	97.7%	Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?	Binary
-21.758	98.0%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-21.922	100.0%	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
-22.222	23.0%	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-23.076	100.0%	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
-23.262	43.8%	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
-23.700	43.4%	When will programs write programs for us?	Continuous
-23.927	99.2%	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
-23.992	96.5%	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous
-24.131	95.0%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
-25.104	92.4%	Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?	Binary
-25.104	99.5%	In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?	Continuous
-25.465	99.1%	What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?	Continuous
-27.135	98.5%	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
-27.972	85.1%	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
-27.975	98.5%	Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-28.427	99.5%	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
-32.042	98.9%	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
-33.538	97.4%	In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?	Continuous
-33.626	97.9%	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-36.998	98.5%	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-37.269	99.7%	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-37.770	92.1%	How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?	Continuous
-38.197	98.6%	What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?	Continuous
-42.332	99.9%	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
-43.097	99.9%	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
-44.066	99.2%	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
-46.577	98.5%	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-46.589	100.0%	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
-48.052	99.5%	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
-50.979	99.7%	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
-52.244	100.0%	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
-62.600	94.7%	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
-62.844	99.5%	If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?	Binary
-90.527	95.6%	When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?	Continuous
-189.943	99.0%	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous