Matthew_Barnett

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

7.762	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
55.812	How much interest will the 2021 US Government report on UAPs generate?	Continuous
35.509	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
25.400	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
25.283	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
21.985	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
18.066	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
17.616	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
14.740	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
14.229	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
13.831	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
9.546	When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?	Continuous
9.539	Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?	Binary
9.377	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
9.366	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
6.856	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
5.972	By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?	Binary
4.352	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
4.101	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
3.910	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
3.438	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
3.168	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
0.499	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
0.443	Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?	Binary
0.296	Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021?	Binary
0.248	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
0.181	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
0.110	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
0.091	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
0.016	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
-1.256	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
-2.236	Will Aubrey de Grey be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022?	Binary