Bob_Jacobs

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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4.449		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
60.407	90.8%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?	Continuous
54.544	81.2%	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
54.286	94.4%	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
45.799	90.0%	When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?	Continuous
41.430	78.9%	As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	Continuous
38.702	98.4%	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?	Continuous
37.845	82.4%	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
36.913	92.8%	What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?	Continuous
35.634	67.7%	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
35.296	82.1%	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
32.001	90.7%	Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?	Continuous
31.645	80.0%	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
31.061	98.8%	What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates? (December 14, 2024)	Continuous
29.768	93.0%	What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)	Continuous
27.548	92.1%	What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?	Continuous
26.869	86.7%	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
24.745	70.7%	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
22.067	66.3%	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
21.237	42.6%	What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?	Continuous
21.056	59.4%	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
19.965	91.0%	When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
19.727	97.6%	Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?	Binary
19.384	64.0%	Will China launch an "artificial moon" by 2025?	Binary
18.409	98.5%	Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?	Binary
18.043	72.7%	When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?	Continuous
17.579	99.9%	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
17.501	18.9%	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
16.859	70.2%	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?	Continuous
15.839	36.7%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
14.207	88.8%	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
13.990	99.0%	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
13.864	26.3%	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
13.786	99.7%	What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?	Continuous
13.649	69.0%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
12.499	92.9%	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
12.171	49.7%	Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?	Binary
11.917	92.7%	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
11.452	43.7%	Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?	Binary
11.066	99.6%	At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?	Binary
10.888	20.7%	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
10.770	30.0%	When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?	Continuous
10.547	73.1%	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
10.290	99.2%	Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?	Binary
10.022	99.3%	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
9.902	80.7%	How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
9.687	47.4%	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
9.461	75.4%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
9.399	98.0%	Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?	Binary
8.914	95.8%	Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?	Binary
8.665	79.6%	What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?	Continuous
8.604	66.7%	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
8.500	57.9%	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
8.408	29.1%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
8.319	34.2%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
8.187	66.8%	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
8.105	87.2%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
8.043	96.6%	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
7.998	36.6%	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
7.858	85.3%	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
7.706	99.8%	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
7.484	80.1%	How many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be approved for consumption by the FDA on July 31, 2025?	Continuous
7.415	80.0%	Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?	Binary
7.223	74.3%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
7.072	99.9%	Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?	Binary
6.841	90.6%	What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?	Continuous
6.567	91.0%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
6.553	19.7%	When will the VIX index fall below 20?	Continuous
6.511	83.1%	How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?	Continuous
6.491	28.9%	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
6.370	87.5%	What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?	Continuous
5.998	81.2%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
5.836	97.1%	Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?	Binary
5.762	31.0%	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
5.617	31.5%	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
5.489	98.1%	In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?	Continuous
4.966	98.4%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
4.944	48.5%	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
4.704	59.0%	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
4.405	23.3%	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
4.060	89.7%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
4.042	61.8%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
3.843	74.4%	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
3.713	88.9%	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
3.573	98.9%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
3.465	87.7%	How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?	Continuous
3.445	97.5%	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
3.305	99.9%	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
3.285	6.9%	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
3.212	75.5%	What percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?	Continuous
3.162	54.1%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
3.089	8.2%	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
2.825	40.6%	When will be the next S&P 500 correction?	Continuous
2.784	48.7%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
2.758	41.5%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
2.705	17.1%	How much concern about climate change will exist in 2025, according to Google Trends?	Continuous
2.613	42.9%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
2.590	51.3%	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
2.531	9.0%	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
2.481	27.4%	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
2.401	97.8%	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
2.159	18.1%	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
2.145	5.5%	In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?	Continuous
2.070	64.3%	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
2.064	99.1%	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
2.022	67.2%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
2.019	99.9%	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
1.972	6.5%	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
1.845	92.0%	Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?	Binary
1.758	4.8%	How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?	Continuous
1.646	75.7%	On December 1, 2023, how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?	Continuous
1.563	100.0%	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
1.450	9.4%	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
1.410	3.8%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
1.396	97.9%	Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
1.199	10.4%	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
1.090	4.1%	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
1.048	98.4%	Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?	Binary
1.017	11.1%	Will another paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022?	Binary
0.976	1.9%	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
0.949	14.9%	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
0.931	34.1%	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
0.781	62.9%	Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?	Continuous
0.697	99.7%	Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?	Binary
0.554	0.7%	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
0.529	6.4%	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
0.523	86.0%	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
0.436	4.2%	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
0.326	29.6%	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
0.323	1.8%	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
0.312	87.1%	What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?	Continuous
0.304	16.1%	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
0.207	1.5%	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
0.174	0.9%	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
0.127	75.4%	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
-0.115	78.6%	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous
-0.184	49.0%	When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?	Continuous
-0.259	54.9%	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
-0.344	72.0%	How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?	Continuous
-0.395	99.9%	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
-0.749	59.8%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
-0.863	5.3%	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
-0.865	18.9%	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
-1.247	82.0%	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-1.593	83.9%	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-1.903	99.1%	If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?	Binary
-2.193	95.6%	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
-2.324	74.4%	How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?	Continuous
-2.373	56.5%	Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?	Binary
-2.378	53.5%	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
-2.467	40.9%	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
-2.650	56.2%	What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?	Continuous
-2.989	74.7%	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?	Continuous
-3.495	89.9%	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
-3.554	38.1%	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
-3.701	57.9%	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
-4.111	90.7%	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
-4.294	94.8%	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
-4.309	74.4%	How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?	Continuous
-4.979	30.6%	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
-5.036	67.9%	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
-5.149	98.1%	When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?	Continuous
-5.493	84.5%	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
-5.757	97.3%	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
-5.772	87.5%	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-5.896	98.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-6.043	88.1%	How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?	Continuous
-6.242	89.8%	Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?	Binary
-6.290	98.0%	Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?	Binary
-6.393	83.4%	What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?	Continuous
-6.646	71.8%	Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?	Binary
-6.661	46.9%	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
-6.945	84.9%	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
-7.528	36.1%	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
-7.634	73.9%	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
-7.904	87.9%	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
-9.109	80.1%	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
-9.130	84.4%	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
-9.134	98.4%	What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?	Continuous
-10.619	84.4%	How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?	Continuous
-10.746	58.9%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
-11.073	70.5%	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
-11.362	86.5%	Will Trump flee the United States?	Binary
-11.521	42.8%	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
-11.831	86.6%	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
-12.131	82.0%	Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-12.238	94.7%	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
-12.622	74.7%	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
-13.192	98.2%	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
-13.612	87.1%	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
-13.750	80.0%	What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?	Continuous
-13.919	75.8%	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-14.392	95.7%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
-14.943	74.3%	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
-15.624	98.7%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-15.748	99.2%	Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?	Binary
-16.337	83.4%	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
-17.110	99.2%	How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?	Continuous
-18.364	90.6%	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
-19.794	78.0%	Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?	Binary
-20.314	87.2%	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	Binary
-20.548	77.9%	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-26.040	84.7%	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous
-27.124	99.6%	Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023?	Binary
-34.211	68.1%	When will GTA VI be released in the US?	Continuous
-35.886	93.9%	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
-36.777	73.9%	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	Continuous
-42.097	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-66.672	66.0%	When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?	Continuous