elifland

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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10.13		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
100.860	94.8%	When will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?	Continuous
93.086	95.2%	How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022?	Continuous
65.847	84.7%	What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?	Continuous
64.308	90.0%	When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?	Continuous
52.459	96.0%	What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?	Continuous
50.682	96.1%	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
47.164	97.9%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
44.138	90.9%	What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?	Continuous
41.522	99.0%	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
37.174	99.9%	Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?	Binary
35.832	97.2%	When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?	Continuous
34.802	85.4%	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary
34.455	87.6%	How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
31.922	89.4%	Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?	Binary
31.305	95.2%	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022?	Continuous
30.320	70.7%	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
29.305	99.2%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024)	Binary
25.803	95.2%	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022?	Continuous
24.104	99.1%	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
23.305	99.7%	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
23.147	97.9%	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
22.574	88.6%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
21.287	95.7%	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
20.732	98.9%	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
20.578	95.2%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
20.454	96.3%	How many deaths due to monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?	Continuous
20.415	88.4%	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
19.741	77.7%	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
19.086	67.2%	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
18.517	99.2%	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
18.239	92.1%	Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?	Binary
18.049	38.5%	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
17.817	96.2%	What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?	Continuous
17.521	95.2%	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
16.959	99.3%	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
14.889	99.7%	What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?	Continuous
14.853	98.1%	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
14.777	99.7%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
14.482	99.0%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
14.127	46.9%	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
14.080	98.8%	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
13.815	90.0%	Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?	Binary
12.931	79.2%	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
11.799	88.1%	Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?	Binary
11.544	89.6%	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
11.326	96.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
11.065	98.8%	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
10.672	99.0%	What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022?	Continuous
10.178	71.3%	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
9.851	60.0%	Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years? (2026)	Binary
9.811	99.5%	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2026)	Continuous
9.426	99.9%	Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?	Binary
8.586	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
7.741	75.7%	In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
7.663	37.7%	What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
7.427	100.0%	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
7.282	90.8%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
6.916	79.2%	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
6.810	98.7%	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
6.224	62.1%	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
5.302	91.2%	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
5.079	72.7%	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
4.720	53.3%	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
4.391	99.9%	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
3.444	7.6%	Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?	Binary
3.172	61.4%	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
2.884	98.1%	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
2.410	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
2.011	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
1.627	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
1.593	3.3%	Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026?	Binary
1.303	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
1.016	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
0.894	54.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
0.871	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
-0.183	1.2%	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
-0.742	98.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
-1.325	99.9%	What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025?	Continuous
-1.449	97.6%	Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?	Binary
-1.696	99.5%	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
-1.928	20.0%	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-2.697	100.0%	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-3.043	28.7%	Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?	Binary
-4.084	75.7%	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
-5.106	96.8%	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
-6.461	100.0%	BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?	Binary
-7.880	66.5%	On what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)?	Continuous
-8.150	11.3%	Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?	Binary
-10.103	99.8%	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
-12.935	96.8%	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
-14.832	99.0%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-15.949	78.2%	When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?	Continuous
-23.374	98.6%	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
-25.609	85.3%	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
-27.005	88.3%	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-27.104	95.2%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022?	Continuous
-29.187	87.7%	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
-31.743	99.0%	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
-34.386	69.0%	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
-34.688	96.4%	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
-48.819	93.0%	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
-57.866	99.9%	How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?	Continuous
-70.411	80.0%	When will the federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (classified documents case)	Continuous
-97.186	98.0%	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous