galen

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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15.89		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
85.381	90.1%	When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?	Continuous
80.615	99.9%	When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?	Continuous
79.720	74.0%	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
66.805	88.5%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
62.123	72.7%	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	Continuous
60.133	93.7%	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?	Continuous
58.395	72.1%	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
53.271	88.0%	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
52.883	92.3%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
50.425	99.7%	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
43.747	86.5%	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
40.408	70.2%	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
39.860	99.7%	What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)	Continuous
34.637	83.8%	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
34.041	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
33.582	89.4%	Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?	Binary
30.460	32.8%	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
30.040	92.2%	At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?	Binary
29.106	98.1%	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
28.880	85.3%	When will GTA VI be released in the US?	Continuous
27.958	68.7%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
27.716	75.3%	When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?	Continuous
26.655	99.6%	What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates? (December 14, 2024)	Continuous
25.851	93.1%	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
25.146	96.7%	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
24.573	66.9%	When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?	Continuous
24.291	84.9%	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?	Continuous
24.002	47.8%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
23.516	99.7%	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
22.472	72.8%	How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
22.256	63.6%	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
19.714	74.5%	When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours?	Continuous
19.391	73.0%	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
19.332	68.4%	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
19.176	51.9%	When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
18.267	91.4%	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
17.424	76.1%	Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?	Binary
16.407	66.5%	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
15.835	69.6%	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
15.791	57.7%	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
15.509	72.7%	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
15.377	95.9%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
15.334	68.4%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
15.034	87.6%	Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?	Continuous
14.506	71.2%	What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?	Continuous
14.427	94.8%	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
14.309	72.0%	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
14.174	27.6%	When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?	Continuous
14.109	77.2%	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
14.062	70.2%	What percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?	Continuous
13.735	65.3%	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
13.364	83.8%	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous
13.302	65.2%	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
13.299	99.6%	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
13.102	71.6%	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
12.760	83.4%	Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?	Binary
12.335	74.6%	As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	Continuous
12.320	20.6%	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
12.319	70.9%	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
12.260	94.3%	Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?	Binary
12.225	55.9%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
11.990	64.5%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
11.826	20.4%	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
11.685	65.3%	Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?	Binary
11.633	95.2%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
11.610	69.3%	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
11.373	84.9%	Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?	Binary
11.171	51.3%	When will be the next S&P 500 correction?	Continuous
11.094	90.3%	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
11.082	75.3%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
11.047	91.1%	Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?	Binary
10.901	88.0%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
10.836	23.9%	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
10.773	85.7%	Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?	Binary
10.673	69.9%	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
10.502	52.4%	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
10.271	67.9%	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
10.179	90.5%	Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?	Binary
10.112	66.8%	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
10.093	80.2%	Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?	Binary
10.015	84.5%	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
9.597	77.6%	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
9.521	37.2%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
9.424	40.2%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
9.240	84.1%	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
9.219	52.8%	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
9.181	83.9%	What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?	Continuous
9.062	67.5%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
8.933	98.0%	Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?	Binary
8.870	80.8%	What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?	Continuous
8.814	78.2%	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
8.585	30.9%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
8.561	81.5%	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
8.558	25.3%	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
8.555	82.2%	If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?	Binary
8.371	80.6%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
8.277	99.7%	Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?	Binary
8.272	69.8%	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
8.259	83.9%	In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?	Continuous
8.198	63.3%	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
7.826	24.3%	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
7.741	26.2%	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
7.741	66.6%	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
7.728	78.1%	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
7.630	58.0%	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
7.526	78.6%	Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?	Continuous
7.454	24.3%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
7.401	74.6%	How many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be approved for consumption by the FDA on July 31, 2025?	Continuous
7.340	86.1%	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
7.301	98.2%	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
7.267	64.5%	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
7.250	74.0%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
6.974	24.2%	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
6.944	90.2%	What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?	Continuous
6.903	84.9%	How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?	Continuous
6.834	15.2%	When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?	Continuous
6.751	92.5%	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
6.731	76.9%	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	Binary
6.637	76.9%	How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?	Continuous
6.266	35.6%	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
6.217	53.0%	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
6.005	89.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
5.896	50.0%	Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?	Binary
5.895	77.9%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?	Continuous
5.512	58.8%	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
5.500	72.5%	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
5.493	79.0%	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
5.458	64.1%	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
5.450	39.0%	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
5.381	15.7%	What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?	Continuous
5.376	88.8%	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
5.311	69.8%	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
5.290	88.2%	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
5.191	76.3%	Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023?	Binary
5.168	98.0%	Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
5.111	40.7%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
5.063	65.7%	Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
5.062	14.3%	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
5.051	65.0%	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
5.013	45.5%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
5.011	45.3%	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
4.930	76.4%	What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?	Continuous
4.625	36.9%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
4.499	25.4%	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
4.475	98.1%	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
4.392	72.3%	How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?	Continuous
4.375	41.5%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
4.275	80.6%	What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?	Continuous
4.177	38.2%	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
3.973	31.2%	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
3.948	72.9%	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
3.885	65.1%	Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?	Binary
3.874	15.0%	Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?	Continuous
3.737	36.3%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
3.671	94.7%	How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?	Continuous
3.451	62.5%	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
3.346	95.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
3.339	99.6%	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
3.235	3.9%	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
3.168	48.3%	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
2.717	86.0%	What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?	Continuous
2.203	4.2%	When will the VIX index fall below 20?	Continuous
2.189	70.5%	How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?	Continuous
2.186	39.6%	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
1.938	26.1%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
1.927	34.7%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
1.785	25.9%	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
1.781	13.9%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
1.765	25.0%	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
1.759	75.7%	What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?	Continuous
1.750	3.7%	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
1.675	10.0%	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
1.612	66.8%	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
1.406	24.2%	What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?	Continuous
1.224	27.2%	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
1.098	2.7%	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
1.080	46.2%	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
1.016	3.7%	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
1.001	72.2%	On December 1, 2023, how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?	Continuous
0.971	22.9%	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
0.964	85.5%	Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?	Binary
0.952	6.4%	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
0.920	5.7%	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
0.858	9.8%	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
0.846	3.1%	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
0.818	29.9%	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
0.556	67.2%	What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?	Continuous
0.536	33.8%	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
0.487	4.4%	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
0.429	1.6%	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
0.144	0.5%	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
0.094	3.2%	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
0.079	0.3%	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
-0.110	2.3%	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
-0.139	95.5%	Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?	Binary
-0.213	15.4%	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
-0.354	36.3%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
-1.141	62.7%	How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?	Continuous
-1.770	20.7%	Will Trump flee the United States?	Binary
-1.906	48.9%	When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?	Continuous
-1.933	95.9%	How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?	Continuous
-2.277	94.4%	Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?	Binary
-2.724	61.8%	What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?	Continuous
-2.781	95.9%	How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?	Continuous
-2.903	99.8%	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
-4.111	92.5%	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?	Continuous
-5.062	82.5%	What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?	Continuous
-5.498	90.3%	What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?	Continuous
-5.719	18.9%	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
-7.026	74.9%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
-7.419	68.3%	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-15.798	99.5%	When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?	Continuous
-20.130	98.0%	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
-21.437	72.6%	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous
-28.474	99.8%	What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?	Continuous
-45.026	79.9%	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
-117.044	59.4%	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous