JonathanShi

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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5.403		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
157.976	100.0%	What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?	Continuous
75.026	100.0%	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
62.992	94.2%	When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?	Continuous
52.662	91.0%	What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?	Continuous
51.024	99.8%	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
46.902	85.8%	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
44.954	99.7%	How many customers will make up the biggest paying customer base of any AI assistant software in 2025?	Continuous
43.979	89.0%	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
43.508	99.7%	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
38.738	99.8%	Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?	Binary
37.469	94.1%	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
34.961	44.8%	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
34.746	76.1%	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
33.176	99.5%	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
29.940	100.0%	What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election?	Continuous
27.399	100.0%	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
26.901	98.2%	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
23.270	62.5%	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
20.308	95.9%	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
20.246	89.5%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
19.922	46.8%	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
18.900	95.1%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
18.583	79.2%	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
18.262	100.0%	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
17.822	96.1%	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
17.027	97.5%	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2026)	Continuous
15.840	69.3%	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
15.602	69.0%	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
15.384	100.0%	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
15.212	99.9%	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
15.005	98.5%	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
14.939	100.0%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
14.091	99.9%	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
14.040	93.2%	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
12.498	97.6%	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
12.139	99.9%	What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?	Continuous
11.423	98.0%	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
11.366	73.2%	What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?	Continuous
11.330	97.5%	What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025?	Continuous
10.951	99.8%	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
10.701	99.7%	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
9.892	98.8%	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
9.738	93.8%	How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?	Continuous
8.875	81.4%	Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?	Binary
8.425	56.8%	When will San Francisco County lift their mask mandate?	Continuous
8.254	67.4%	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
8.086	84.7%	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
7.407	100.0%	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
7.015	84.1%	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
6.860	99.9%	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
6.856	95.5%	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
6.270	95.6%	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
5.838	99.9%	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
5.766	95.5%	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
5.329	99.8%	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
5.053	97.6%	Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?	Binary
4.892	27.4%	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?	Binary
4.827	99.6%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
4.508	84.1%	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
4.438	99.8%	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
3.909	9.4%	When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months?	Continuous
3.908	100.0%	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
3.871	98.2%	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
2.967	91.8%	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?	Binary
2.773	99.5%	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
2.728	84.7%	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
2.412	100.0%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
2.341	87.3%	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
2.168	88.4%	What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?	Continuous
1.854	54.7%	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
1.797	99.9%	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
1.677	95.5%	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
1.349	99.5%	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
0.745	84.7%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
0.514	72.7%	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
0.361	93.4%	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
0.198	1.2%	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
0.001	0.0%	Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?	Binary
-0.084	90.0%	In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?	Continuous
-0.159	97.6%	How many estimated excess deaths due to starvation will occur in Ethiopia as a result of the Tigray war?	Continuous
-0.311	7.5%	Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?	Binary
-1.121	99.5%	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
-1.227	95.5%	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
-1.744	98.0%	What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?	Continuous
-1.847	95.5%	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
-1.866	19.6%	Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?	Binary
-2.129	91.8%	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?	Binary
-2.667	99.8%	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-3.267	98.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
-3.568	99.7%	In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?	Continuous
-3.581	56.7%	When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?	Continuous
-5.067	97.8%	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
-5.685	91.8%	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 1000 questions?	Binary
-5.864	99.9%	Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?	Binary
-7.408	99.4%	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
-8.041	97.6%	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-8.644	100.0%	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
-9.759	90.0%	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
-10.301	90.3%	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
-10.459	95.5%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
-10.470	97.5%	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
-10.543	95.5%	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
-11.668	64.9%	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-11.811	97.2%	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
-12.970	99.7%	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
-13.085	90.0%	Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?	Binary
-14.745	99.6%	If the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?	Continuous
-15.288	97.2%	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
-15.443	91.8%	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 100 questions?	Binary
-16.361	82.6%	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
-17.022	91.2%	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
-17.796	70.4%	Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?	Binary
-17.921	100.0%	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
-18.684	91.8%	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?	Binary
-22.172	90.0%	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-23.938	70.9%	BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?	Binary
-24.495	91.8%	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?	Binary
-24.594	96.3%	What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?	Continuous
-25.471	41.0%	How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?	Continuous
-27.105	94.1%	When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?	Continuous
-27.825	95.5%	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous
-29.346	95.5%	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
-39.573	96.3%	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary
-44.078	99.9%	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-56.821	100.0%	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
-63.282	99.9%	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-73.768	100.0%	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary