isaacdunn

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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4.997	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
69.884	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous
66.609	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
56.513	When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?	Continuous
46.730	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
40.238	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
37.082	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]	Continuous
34.590	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
31.556	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
30.860	Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
30.813	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
29.394	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
27.891	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
27.755	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
26.915	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
26.850	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
25.538	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
24.883	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
24.434	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
20.794	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
19.690	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
19.291	Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?	Binary
19.157	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
18.148	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
17.672	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
17.443	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
17.426	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous
16.646	When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?	Continuous
14.606	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	Binary
14.427	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?	Continuous
14.054	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
13.774	What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?	Continuous
13.655	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
13.316	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
13.147	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
13.093	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	Binary
12.864	Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
12.540	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
12.512	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
12.450	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
12.397	How many consumer electric vehicles (including PHEV, HEV and EV) will be sold by Volkswagen group in 2020?	Continuous
12.231	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
12.043	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
11.996	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
11.886	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
11.671	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
11.112	For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
10.936	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?	Continuous
10.779	What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?	Continuous
10.475	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?	Binary
9.415	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
9.328	How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?	Continuous
9.246	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
9.097	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
8.737	What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021?	Continuous
8.636	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
8.119	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
7.972	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
7.562	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
6.957	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021?	Continuous
6.711	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
6.710	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
6.361	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
6.070	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
4.824	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
4.600	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?	Binary
4.500	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
3.953	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
3.755	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
3.192	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
3.088	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
2.702	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
2.648	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
2.491	By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?	Binary
2.281	Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
2.044	What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?	Continuous
1.956	What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
1.929	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	Binary
1.755	Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?	Binary
1.494	What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?	Continuous
1.469	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
1.410	How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?	Continuous
1.161	What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?	Continuous
0.816	How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
0.772	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	Binary
0.516	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
0.407	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?	Continuous
0.345	How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?	Continuous
0.260	When will Disneyland reopen?	Continuous
0.143	Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?	Binary
0.138	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be cast via early in-person voting?	Continuous
0.024	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
-0.002	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
-0.006	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee?	Continuous
-0.076	When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard?	Continuous
-0.101	Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
-0.118	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
-0.153	Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021?	Binary
-0.258	What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-0.283	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L3)	Continuous
-0.431	Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?	Binary
-0.597	Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2020?	Binary
-0.619	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
-0.982	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-1.101	What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?	Continuous
-1.231	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?	Continuous
-1.245	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
-1.314	Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?	Binary
-1.425	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	Binary
-1.649	Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?	Binary
-1.780	How many consumer plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be sold in the US in 2020?	Continuous
-2.496	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
-2.553	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	Continuous
-3.077	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
-3.628	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
-3.911	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?	Binary
-3.986	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for January 2021?	Continuous
-4.008	If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?	Binary
-4.686	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
-5.056	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
-5.441	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	Binary
-5.555	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
-5.659	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
-6.247	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
-6.662	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
-6.663	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
-7.561	What will be the COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index for the US be on February 1st 2021?	Continuous
-7.632	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?	Binary
-7.852	Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?	Binary
-9.744	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
-10.137	When will the first Macs with Apple Silicon ship?	Continuous
-10.358	When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?	Continuous
-10.603	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
-13.125	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
-14.979	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
-15.868	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
-16.555	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
-19.794	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
-19.849	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
-23.727	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
-23.983	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
-24.106	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
-24.645	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
-28.279	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
-43.075	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
-60.265	Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
-61.612	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous