Alexander230

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2023-24

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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9.791		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
22.494	99.2%	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
20.533	16.0%	How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2023-2024 season?	Continuous
19.349	97.9%	5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
18.621	61.5%	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
17.456	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju)	Binary
16.999	22.7%	Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024?	Binary
15.430	18.8%	How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
9.607	51.7%	Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday?	Multiple Choice
9.447	21.7%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
9.276	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri)	Binary
7.660	24.8%	Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024?	Binary
6.704	25.8%	Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?	Binary
6.541	20.2%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D))	Binary
6.480	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja)	Binary
6.296	10.4%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
5.278	42.9%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board)	Binary
5.104	91.0%	Will Tether collapse before 2025?	Binary
4.620	4.6%	Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
4.122	91.0%	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
4.075	24.2%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
3.940	9.4%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid)	Binary
3.646	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Leinier Domínguez Pérez)	Binary
3.598	4.0%	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
3.531	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So)	Binary
3.493	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov)	Binary
3.024	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
2.719	39.9%	Will Dutch supermarket Albert Heijn still sell crompouces by April 30, 2024?	Binary
2.715	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen)	Binary
2.521	5.4%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
2.462	41.6%	Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2024 Jan 31st, ≥ 40%)	Binary
2.200	5.5%	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic)	Binary
2.198	4.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
2.112	5.3%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic)	Binary
1.993	5.5%	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection)	Binary
1.940	5.3%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind)	Binary
1.849	2.5%	How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"?	Continuous
1.836	10.5%	Will a New or Joint "Worst 82-Game Regular Season Record" in NBA History be set in 2024?	Binary
1.791	5.3%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI)	Binary
1.637	12.3%	Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?	Binary
1.612	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian)	Binary
1.549	4.6%	Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
1.467	5.5%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional)	Binary
1.465	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi)	Binary
1.457	10.1%	Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?	Binary
1.430	12.3%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin)	Binary
1.364	5.5%	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta)	Binary
1.307	9.4%	Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics?	Multiple Choice
1.251	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko)	Binary
1.250	42.9%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft)	Binary
1.209	6.0%	What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024?	Continuous
1.201	6.7%	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP))	Binary
1.192	3.0%	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?	Binary
1.190	5.3%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta)	Binary
1.185	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi)	Binary
1.165	4.8%	Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?	Binary
1.124	5.5%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional)	Binary
1.117	5.1%	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?	Binary
1.098	11.2%	Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections?	Binary
1.086	42.9%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft)	Binary
1.059	5.5%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional)	Binary
1.049	5.0%	Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?	Binary
0.997	3.9%	Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?	Binary
0.989	2.7%	Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election?	Binary
0.961	3.8%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
0.957	5.2%	Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season?	Binary
0.928	5.3%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection)	Binary
0.914	5.5%	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI)	Binary
0.907	59.4%	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024?	Binary
0.874	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov)	Binary
0.846	5.5%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional)	Binary
0.844	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave)	Binary
0.774	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda)	Binary
0.771	12.3%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney)	Binary
0.753	6.8%	Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?	Binary
0.712	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei)	Binary
0.680	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana)	Binary
0.666	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport)	Binary
0.635	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian)	Binary
0.614	1.7%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
0.603	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo)	Binary
0.599	5.5%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional)	Binary
0.577	3.5%	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
0.564	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott)	Binary
0.562	4.9%	Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025?	Binary
0.561	42.9%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI)	Binary
0.557	4.3%	Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
0.547	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu)	Binary
0.530	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
0.530	3.8%	Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?	Binary
0.502	12.3%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban)	Binary
0.486	2.2%	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?	Binary
0.459	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer)	Binary
0.458	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke)	Binary
0.457	2.4%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP)	Binary
0.452	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
0.440	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard)	Binary
0.430	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev)	Binary
0.417	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk)	Binary
0.395	5.5%	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind)	Binary
0.388	4.5%	Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election?	Binary
0.385	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann)	Binary
0.379	0.5%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
0.378	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand)	Binary
0.368	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot)	Binary
0.354	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
0.341	12.3%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson)	Binary
0.339	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin)	Binary
0.325	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)	Binary
0.324	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura)	Binary
0.318	5.5%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, not optional)	Binary
0.307	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov)	Binary
0.292	26.6%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi)	Binary
0.291	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik)	Binary
0.280	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem)	Binary
0.253	2.4%	Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?	Binary
0.249	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence)	Binary
0.238	2.2%	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
0.233	25.8%	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?	Binary
0.212	42.9%	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman)	Binary
0.207	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake)	Binary
0.176	2.1%	Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?	Binary
0.142	0.5%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
0.134	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio)	Binary
0.126	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson)	Binary
0.125	62.8%	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?	Binary
0.109	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
0.106	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
0.095	0.2%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
0.089	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
0.085	0.7%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-24)	Continuous
0.084	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
0.083	0.2%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D))	Binary
0.075	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
0.073	0.5%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
0.062	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
0.062	4.5%	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
0.060	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds)	Binary
0.060	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds)	Binary
0.057	28.4%	Will Erling Haaland score the most goals in the 2023/24 Premier League season?	Binary
0.053	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst)	Binary
0.053	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace)	Binary
0.051	0.8%	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19)	Continuous
0.048	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
0.046	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump)	Binary
0.045	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie)	Binary
0.042	0.4%	Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?	Binary
0.041	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin)	Binary
0.040	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump)	Binary
0.037	0.5%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
0.036	4.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt)	Binary
0.035	0.5%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
0.032	1.5%	Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont?	Binary
0.020	0.3%	Will the Republican Party retain California's 20th District in the 2024 special election?	Binary
0.012	0.5%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
0.012	0.5%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
0.007	0.5%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
0.003	0.0%	Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?	Binary
-0.245	8.7%	What will be the exchange rate for the Swedish Krona (SEK) to the US Dollar (USD) on June 30, 2024?	Continuous
-0.599	14.8%	Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024?	Binary
-0.680	2.9%	What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (May-24)	Continuous
-0.906	3.8%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks)	Binary
-1.186	9.4%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund)	Binary
-1.751	21.7%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
-2.212	3.3%	Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India?	Binary
-11.294	9.8%	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump)	Continuous
-14.342	48.1%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Massachusetts)	Continuous