PepeS

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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15.99		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
107.540	98.1%	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
82.730	89.2%	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	Continuous
81.162	99.1%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
80.331	99.3%	When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?	Continuous
78.989	99.9%	When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?	Continuous
70.910	69.3%	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
65.950	90.6%	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
55.241	97.9%	What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?	Continuous
54.658	67.3%	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
54.008	99.8%	When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?	Continuous
53.545	99.6%	What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?	Continuous
50.769	99.6%	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
50.035	97.1%	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
46.294	99.2%	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
46.229	70.0%	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
45.396	95.7%	How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
41.539	80.1%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
41.175	93.8%	What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?	Continuous
39.779	99.4%	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
38.669	99.3%	Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?	Binary
38.457	93.4%	What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?	Continuous
38.049	99.7%	Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?	Binary
37.913	74.7%	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
37.745	99.6%	Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?	Continuous
37.521	99.3%	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?	Continuous
36.004	84.1%	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous
35.805	94.6%	When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?	Continuous
33.931	77.0%	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
32.758	72.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
32.205	99.8%	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
30.039	99.7%	What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates? (December 14, 2024)	Continuous
28.678	92.4%	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
28.339	87.9%	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
28.103	98.0%	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous
26.027	60.2%	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
25.993	97.4%	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
24.845	96.0%	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
23.956	60.3%	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
23.870	95.4%	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
23.320	99.6%	How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?	Continuous
23.268	99.8%	Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?	Binary
23.161	99.5%	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
22.494	98.8%	When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?	Continuous
22.434	99.3%	When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
21.738	47.1%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
21.391	98.1%	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
21.354	47.9%	When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?	Continuous
21.304	100.0%	How much concern about climate change will exist in 2025, according to Google Trends?	Continuous
21.039	99.7%	In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?	Continuous
20.953	88.5%	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
20.665	80.3%	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
19.885	40.0%	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
19.847	91.9%	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
19.547	99.9%	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
19.505	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
19.339	99.4%	As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	Continuous
18.847	99.8%	Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?	Binary
18.386	99.8%	How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?	Continuous
18.164	96.8%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
17.941	92.1%	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
17.429	76.6%	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
17.388	67.5%	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
16.991	67.0%	Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?	Binary
16.965	71.4%	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
16.916	59.6%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
16.330	81.9%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
16.216	63.1%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
16.117	91.9%	Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?	Binary
15.950	85.6%	What percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?	Continuous
15.640	99.9%	What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)	Continuous
15.353	99.2%	Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
15.179	83.6%	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
14.868	60.4%	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
14.867	30.4%	When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?	Continuous
14.852	99.8%	Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?	Binary
14.775	98.9%	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
14.404	97.7%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
14.068	81.8%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
14.058	93.5%	What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?	Continuous
13.898	99.5%	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
13.719	60.1%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
13.650	99.9%	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
13.208	54.1%	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
13.163	96.0%	What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?	Continuous
13.107	93.6%	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
13.019	68.0%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
13.002	60.2%	When will be the next S&P 500 correction?	Continuous
12.910	99.4%	Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?	Binary
12.646	27.2%	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
12.616	79.3%	When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours?	Continuous
12.614	80.2%	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
12.454	99.9%	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
12.373	95.4%	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
12.175	28.7%	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
11.937	99.7%	Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023?	Binary
11.753	59.1%	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
11.398	99.8%	How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?	Continuous
10.779	94.6%	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	Binary
10.303	95.6%	What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?	Continuous
10.143	99.6%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
10.123	42.1%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
10.122	98.7%	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
10.082	55.6%	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
9.874	77.8%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
9.543	73.6%	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
9.486	22.8%	When will the VIX index fall below 20?	Continuous
9.468	94.4%	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
9.464	91.2%	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
9.399	47.9%	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
9.000	40.6%	Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?	Continuous
8.820	84.6%	How many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be approved for consumption by the FDA on July 31, 2025?	Continuous
8.818	80.9%	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
8.747	89.2%	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
8.519	99.6%	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
8.481	59.3%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
8.340	98.9%	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
8.198	57.3%	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
8.161	99.9%	Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?	Binary
8.055	99.9%	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
7.904	73.0%	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
7.786	91.3%	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
7.570	31.0%	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
7.561	34.5%	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
7.558	83.8%	What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?	Continuous
7.550	27.1%	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
7.375	43.2%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
7.069	59.5%	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
7.002	73.6%	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
6.851	8.3%	When will GTA VI be released in the US?	Continuous
6.827	54.6%	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
6.642	94.5%	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
6.571	93.1%	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
6.242	78.0%	Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?	Binary
6.223	62.7%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
6.148	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
6.090	99.6%	Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?	Binary
5.903	71.7%	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
5.772	74.6%	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
5.600	95.9%	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
5.398	48.0%	Will Trump flee the United States?	Binary
5.386	40.7%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
5.193	98.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
5.176	59.2%	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
5.156	90.4%	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
5.120	97.2%	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
5.021	73.5%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
4.923	18.1%	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
4.897	78.4%	Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?	Binary
4.599	97.4%	Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
4.183	99.0%	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
4.076	46.6%	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
3.949	19.4%	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
3.793	64.5%	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
3.726	10.9%	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L4)	Continuous
3.720	43.4%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
3.713	17.2%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
3.630	42.3%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
3.462	48.1%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
3.295	12.2%	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
3.277	42.8%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
2.968	42.3%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
2.750	49.9%	Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?	Binary
2.589	83.8%	How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?	Continuous
2.454	36.0%	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
2.446	18.9%	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
2.444	32.9%	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
2.248	99.9%	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
2.223	98.9%	How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?	Continuous
2.222	99.5%	How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?	Continuous
2.174	91.7%	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
2.097	11.8%	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
1.984	91.4%	On December 1, 2023, how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?	Continuous
1.969	3.3%	When will US auto manufacturing recover to 80% of pre-COVID-19 production levels?	Continuous
1.965	99.0%	Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?	Binary
1.810	13.3%	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
1.723	7.9%	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
1.546	7.2%	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
1.542	24.8%	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
1.423	1.5%	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
1.396	18.7%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
1.393	80.5%	What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?	Continuous
1.359	89.0%	LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?	Continuous
1.340	36.9%	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
1.287	99.9%	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
1.053	66.0%	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
1.045	1.5%	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
0.959	99.9%	Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?	Binary
0.861	10.5%	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
0.583	99.7%	What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?	Continuous
0.432	3.3%	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
0.299	4.0%	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
0.073	99.9%	At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?	Binary
0.068	9.6%	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
0.001	0.0%	What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?	Continuous
-0.012	9.3%	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
-0.116	87.1%	Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?	Binary
-0.185	42.3%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
-0.393	72.1%	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-0.472	31.0%	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
-0.765	99.3%	What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?	Continuous
-0.930	99.5%	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
-1.071	99.1%	In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?	Continuous
-2.044	28.1%	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
-2.103	99.3%	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-2.829	55.6%	When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?	Continuous
-4.624	97.0%	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-4.804	73.2%	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
-5.178	67.9%	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-5.189	71.2%	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
-5.303	89.7%	What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?	Continuous
-5.710	98.9%	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
-6.550	98.9%	How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?	Continuous
-7.764	99.2%	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
-8.026	98.5%	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-8.366	99.6%	What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?	Continuous
-8.658	99.8%	Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?	Binary
-8.796	99.9%	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
-9.366	97.6%	How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?	Continuous
-10.730	97.4%	If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?	Binary
-11.368	99.6%	What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?	Continuous
-16.349	97.1%	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?	Continuous
-17.214	99.7%	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
-20.498	96.6%	What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?	Continuous
-20.655	99.4%	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?	Continuous
-26.582	93.4%	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
-29.853	99.2%	Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?	Continuous
-33.437	79.5%	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
-34.376	99.8%	Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?	Binary
-44.146	94.5%	If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?	Continuous
-45.325	96.4%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
-53.137	97.5%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?	Continuous