TheFooder

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

5.732		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
127.943	99.4%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
114.172	98.3%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
106.898	97.1%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
105.562	99.4%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
102.192	98.9%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
101.347	99.7%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
98.629	96.3%	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
94.030	99.7%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
88.035	99.6%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
86.618	99.2%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
84.556	99.7%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
81.646	99.7%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
73.396	98.5%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
72.824	99.4%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
72.064	62.9%	What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025?	Continuous
66.817	97.9%	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
66.630	99.4%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
65.162	76.2%	What will be the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the US for the following weeks? (Week ending January 11, 2025)	Continuous
52.044	71.5%	How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?	Multiple Choice
48.713	79.2%	Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?	Multiple Choice
48.370	99.3%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
47.461	47.0%	How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025?	Continuous
46.238	99.4%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
42.845	99.8%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
38.640	96.8%	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
38.446	90.0%	How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?	Continuous
36.538	96.2%	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
36.299	71.1%	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
31.749	99.5%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
28.560	80.8%	Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?	Binary
28.100	96.9%	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
27.480	99.6%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
26.751	76.9%	What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
25.863	99.2%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
24.785	94.7%	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
23.980	99.5%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
23.911	96.9%	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
23.852	99.4%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
22.944	84.7%	What will be the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the US for the following weeks? (Week ending January 18, 2025)	Continuous
21.339	99.6%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
18.195	96.9%	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
17.598	89.5%	How many Cabinet-level Trump nominations will be confirmed by the US Senate before February 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
17.209	46.3%	What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025?	Multiple Choice
16.767	99.4%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
16.198	96.9%	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
15.657	99.0%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
15.449	99.4%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
15.185	96.9%	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
14.891	97.9%	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
14.043	99.0%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
14.002	68.5%	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
13.838	96.6%	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
13.483	46.4%	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
12.405	27.5%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
12.239	99.5%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
12.187	85.6%	Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?	Binary
10.394	17.8%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
9.632	97.9%	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
9.485	97.9%	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
8.928	16.0%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
8.640	64.4%	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
7.896	99.0%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
6.802	98.7%	Which Chamber of the US Congress will vote on a bill in furtherance of an acquisition of Greenland, before 2026?	Multiple Choice
6.669	96.6%	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
6.350	96.8%	What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories?	Continuous
6.013	99.5%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
5.632	10.3%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
5.601	99.2%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
5.044	99.4%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
4.357	77.9%	Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?	Binary
3.308	8.5%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
2.800	52.7%	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
2.490	12.1%	What percentage of the vote will the Alternative für Deutschland win in the 2025 German federal election?	Continuous
1.804	89.5%	Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025?	Binary
1.081	82.8%	What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX?	Continuous
0.013	0.0%	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?	Binary
-	0.9%	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Dec-25)	Continuous
-0.090	99.0%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
-0.426	1.3%	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Dec-25)	Continuous
-4.968	86.1%	How many seconds until midnight will the Doomsday Clock show on January 29, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-8.659	34.7%	What will be the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the US for the following weeks? (Week ending January 4, 2025)	Continuous
-12.915	42.9%	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-18.902	21.3%	How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?	Continuous
-19.099	99.5%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
-28.155	99.5%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
-33.284	34.5%	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-38.823	99.4%	What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-44.284	99.1%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
-63.754	63.4%	What will the total number of tokens launched on the site pump.fun be, as of March 31, 2025?	Continuous
-63.990	99.6%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
-67.863	96.8%	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
-73.461	99.3%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
-93.243	99.4%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
-93.627	99.6%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
-104.026	99.5%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
-104.927	99.2%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-109.883	99.2%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
-129.377	97.5%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
-131.167	99.3%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
-135.221	99.4%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
-135.504	99.1%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
-147.361	99.5%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
-159.220	98.9%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
-208.913	99.0%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
-359.773	93.8%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary