EmanueleAscani

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

5.915	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
41.906	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
29.360	What will be the price of gas on Ethereum one week after EIP-1559?	Continuous
27.770	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
27.408	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
20.209	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
19.750	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
19.611	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
18.288	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
17.967	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
16.402	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
15.754	Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?	Binary
14.285	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
14.253	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
14.010	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
10.577	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
10.012	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
9.819	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
8.739	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
7.185	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
6.892	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
6.270	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
5.413	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
5.162	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
5.120	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
4.423	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
3.982	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
3.230	How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?	Continuous
2.882	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
2.011	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
1.643	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
1.629	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
1.053	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
0.768	Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021?	Binary
0.755	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
0.200	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
-0.271	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
-0.292	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
-0.365	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
-0.934	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
-1.394	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
-2.754	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
-6.080	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
-6.182	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
-7.297	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
-9.343	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
-10.614	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
-14.777	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
-20.218	Will Aubrey de Grey be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022?	Binary
-24.391	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous