zc

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

3.34	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
43.922	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
17.312	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
16.514	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
14.233	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
12.893	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
12.545	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
11.809	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
11.372	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
10.390	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
10.381	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
10.105	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
9.534	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
8.752	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
7.806	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
7.300	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
6.162	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
5.846	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
5.240	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
4.403	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
3.967	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
2.161	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
1.036	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
0.596	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?	Continuous
0.562	Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?	Binary
0.470	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
0.186	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
-0.027	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
-0.232	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-0.268	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-0.602	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
-1.037	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
-1.155	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
-1.840	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
-2.535	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
-2.920	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
-8.292	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
-15.516	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?	Continuous
-30.232	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
-37.252	How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?	Continuous