| 75.273 | 99.9% | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| 55.540 | 77.1% | When will US government 10-year bond yields next exceed 2-year bond yields? | Continuous |
| 34.586 | 90.5% | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional) | Binary |
| 33.026 | 100.0% | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 31.141 | 97.4% | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 31.008 | 60.8% | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 30.942 | 99.4% | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 30.490 | 96.0% | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| 29.022 | 99.9% | Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025? | Binary |
| 27.780 | 97.5% | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 25.338 | 99.0% | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| 23.751 | 100.0% | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 20.483 | 68.3% | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| 20.278 | 90.5% | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional) | Binary |
| 17.952 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 17.707 | 55.5% | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 17.282 | 99.7% | Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023? | Binary |
| 17.042 | 96.9% | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| 16.803 | 60.4% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| 16.750 | 99.9% | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 16.455 | 98.7% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 15.761 | 93.9% | Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections? | Binary |
| 15.289 | 99.9% | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| 15.209 | 98.7% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| 14.848 | 66.5% | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 14.357 | 98.7% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 13.971 | 99.5% | Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025? | Binary |
| 12.646 | 99.0% | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 12.132 | 60.4% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 11.563 | 36.5% | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| 11.156 | 99.6% | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 11.078 | 100.0% | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 10.853 | 96.3% | Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? | Binary |
| 10.244 | 65.8% | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| 9.897 | 99.2% | Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election? | Binary |
| 9.887 | 75.9% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 9.687 | 98.7% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 9.413 | 98.7% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| 9.054 | 99.5% | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 8.899 | 98.7% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 8.810 | 98.7% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| 8.243 | 55.5% | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 7.941 | 90.4% | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 7.697 | 100.0% | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 7.621 | 60.4% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 7.474 | 75.9% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 7.220 | 49.9% | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional) | Binary |
| 7.118 | 57.8% | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 6.842 | 100.0% | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 6.424 | 47.0% | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 6.084 | 75.9% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 5.529 | 75.9% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 5.350 | 99.3% | Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 4.697 | 60.4% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 4.540 | 96.3% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 4.298 | 99.8% | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 4.203 | 50.1% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 4.179 | 49.9% | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, not optional) | Binary |
| 4.104 | 56.2% | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 4.037 | 98.7% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 3.964 | 20.5% | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 3.904 | 85.9% | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 3.801 | 99.8% | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 3.597 | 21.9% | Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025? | Binary |
| 3.421 | 92.2% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 3.090 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 3.076 | 19.5% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 3.064 | 99.9% | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 3.035 | 98.7% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| 2.985 | 99.8% | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 2.923 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 2.862 | 99.8% | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 2.838 | 5.7% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 2.679 | 60.4% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 2.586 | 100.0% | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 2.407 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 2.328 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 2.322 | 91.1% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 2.191 | 42.9% | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 1.969 | 42.9% | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 1.966 | 99.8% | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 1.960 | 85.9% | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 1.937 | 50.1% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 1.894 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 1.810 | 85.9% | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 1.803 | 98.7% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 1.780 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 1.766 | 42.9% | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 1.711 | 85.9% | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 1.639 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 1.619 | 85.9% | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 1.469 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 1.462 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 1.416 | 19.5% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
| 1.391 | 89.4% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 1.379 | 92.4% | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024) | Binary |
| 1.224 | 90.5% | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional) | Binary |
| 1.211 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 1.183 | 60.4% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| 1.135 | 42.9% | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 1.108 | 70.4% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 1.106 | 42.9% | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 1.010 | 5.7% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 1.002 | 31.0% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 0.996 | 57.4% | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.930 | 98.3% | Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 0.852 | 61.4% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 0.821 | 92.4% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 0.740 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 0.704 | 19.5% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 0.673 | 48.9% | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 0.637 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 0.617 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 0.569 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 0.491 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 0.470 | 5.7% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear) | Binary |
| 0.470 | 70.4% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 0.445 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 0.418 | 91.1% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 0.384 | 70.4% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 0.366 | 96.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 0.364 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 0.357 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 0.351 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 0.311 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 0.309 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 0.286 | 25.8% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 0.281 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 0.269 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 0.267 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 0.263 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 0.255 | 5.7% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 0.252 | 13.4% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 0.243 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 0.233 | 99.4% | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 0.232 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 0.211 | 25.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 0.178 | 5.7% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 0.138 | 5.7% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 0.111 | 22.7% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 0.108 | 5.7% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 0.062 | 0.1% | Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025? | Binary |
| -0.046 | 70.9% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| -0.094 | 61.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| -0.118 | 70.9% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| -0.148 | 90.3% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| -0.184 | 0.6% | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No) | Binary |
| -0.242 | 81.5% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| -0.256 | 82.9% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| -0.348 | 71.5% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| -0.614 | 85.9% | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| -0.868 | 90.5% | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional) | Binary |
| -0.974 | 99.9% | Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024? | Binary |
| -1.083 | 19.5% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| -1.503 | 23.6% | Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025? | Binary |
| -2.399 | 65.8% | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| -4.025 | 98.7% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| -4.139 | 98.7% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| -4.191 | 19.6% | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| -5.149 | 99.8% | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| -8.492 | 85.9% | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| -11.694 | 97.6% | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| -16.804 | 99.8% | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| -22.463 | 97.4% | Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025? | Binary |
| -90.443 | 74.1% | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |