| 100.026 | 99.5% | What will be the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 83.682 | 99.4% | When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally? | Continuous |
| 71.389 | 99.9% | How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 69.172 | 100.0% | How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 59.928 | 53.9% | What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area? | Continuous |
| 53.920 | 61.8% | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| 53.916 | 99.4% | What percent of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused? (2025) | Continuous |
| 53.173 | 96.9% | What will productivity be in the United States in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 49.828 | 99.5% | What will be the maximum number of on-Earth reuses for a single booster or other rocket stage in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 49.782 | 99.5% | What will be the number of satellites launched in each of the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 46.194 | 98.5% | What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 44.369 | 99.9% | What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 41.136 | 99.9% | What will the world rice yield be (in tonnes per hectare) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 39.957 | 67.7% | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (3: Negotiations recommended) | Continuous |
| 38.559 | 99.9% | What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 36.572 | 89.2% | How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025? | Continuous |
| 35.514 | 41.2% | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | Binary |
| 34.975 | 99.5% | What will be the number of operational satellites in each year? (2025) | Continuous |
| 33.663 | 85.3% | Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025? | Binary |
| 33.587 | 99.9% | What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 33.181 | 96.9% | How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 30.752 | 98.5% | How many chickens will be slaughtered for meat globally in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 28.299 | 96.9% | What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 27.828 | 58.7% | What will be the average inflation in the US from January 2022 to December 2024? | Continuous |
| 26.084 | 99.9% | What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 25.723 | 98.5% | What will the world population be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 24.273 | 67.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| 22.690 | 100.0% | What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2025) | Continuous |
| 21.515 | 64.1% | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
| 21.275 | 98.6% | What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 19.976 | 87.5% | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
| 18.281 | 99.5% | What will be the maximum number of people in space simultaneously for each of the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 18.046 | 98.2% | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated) | Continuous |
| 16.432 | 99.8% | How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025? | Continuous |
| 16.227 | 97.0% | What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 15.767 | 99.4% | What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 15.018 | 72.0% | Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Binary |
| 14.729 | 82.1% | Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United States) | Binary |
| 14.711 | 72.5% | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (4: Negotiations approved) | Continuous |
| 14.415 | 65.6% | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (CDU/CSU) | Binary |
| 14.411 | 99.9% | What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 14.118 | 99.1% | What will be the total quantity of space debris orbiting earth in each year? (2025) | Continuous |
| 12.856 | 67.8% | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 11.587 | 70.9% | Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 11.031 | 99.8% | Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026? | Binary |
| 10.754 | 50.4% | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 10.453 | 99.8% | Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026? | Binary |
| 10.308 | 18.7% | What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025? | Continuous |
| 10.183 | 99.8% | Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025? | Binary |
| 9.739 | 65.6% | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (SPD) | Binary |
| 9.715 | 52.0% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 9.576 | 98.2% | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 9.097 | 98.4% | What will be the global rate of homicide deaths per 100,000 people in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 8.758 | 88.9% | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 7.853 | 99.9% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 7.838 | 70.7% | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 7.528 | 32.7% | Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022? | Binary |
| 7.463 | 98.9% | How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023? | Continuous |
| 7.099 | 91.5% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 6.979 | 99.5% | What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 6.847 | 54.4% | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 6.350 | 67.6% | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Binary |
| 6.349 | 22.5% | Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (European Union) | Binary |
| 6.243 | 98.0% | Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| 6.095 | 83.3% | Will 2022 be warmer than 2021? | Binary |
| 5.863 | 71.6% | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 5.787 | 98.5% | What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 5.479 | 67.8% | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 4.795 | 60.0% | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 4.750 | 60.2% | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 4.660 | 9.3% | Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match? | Binary |
| 4.383 | 20.1% | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
| 4.365 | 61.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 4.139 | 13.5% | Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025? | Binary |
| 4.118 | 50.3% | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 4.092 | 65.6% | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (AfD) | Binary |
| 3.770 | 67.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 3.524 | 26.4% | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 3.479 | 8.9% | How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 3.235 | 98.4% | What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 2.910 | 29.3% | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 2.905 | 51.2% | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 2.852 | 88.4% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 2.840 | 99.9% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 2.796 | 99.9% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 2.358 | 5.8% | Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 2.032 | 99.9% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 2.024 | 53.8% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 2.021 | 7.7% | Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 1.972 | 100.0% | What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 1.966 | 61.0% | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.954 | 65.6% | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Grüne) | Binary |
| 1.901 | 95.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 1.803 | 99.9% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 1.684 | 22.5% | Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.625 | 5.2% | Before 2032, will the US declare a new public health emergency due to an infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack? | Binary |
| 1.490 | 99.4% | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.398 | 60.2% | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 1.395 | 56.7% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 1.371 | 59.3% | Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United Kingdom) | Binary |
| 1.213 | 88.4% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 1.169 | 96.9% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 1.082 | 99.9% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 1.015 | 65.6% | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (FDP) | Binary |
| 0.978 | 67.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 0.947 | 99.9% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 0.923 | 19.5% | What will be the world population in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 0.843 | 8.5% | When will WHO recommend widespread use of a malaria vaccine that is >75% effective? | Continuous |
| 0.746 | 48.1% | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 0.667 | 67.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 0.655 | 56.7% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 0.611 | 65.6% | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Die Linke) | Binary |
| 0.569 | 1.0% | If Sahra Wagenknecht founds a new party, what percentage of the votes will this party get in the next German federal elections? | Continuous |
| 0.512 | 67.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 0.482 | 67.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 0.427 | 56.7% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 0.285 | 67.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 0.178 | 67.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 0.134 | 1.2% | Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.117 | 67.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 0.002 | 0.1% | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (1: Candidacy recommended) | Continuous |
| -0.114 | 0.9% | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (2: Candidacy granted) | Continuous |
| -0.959 | 67.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| -0.962 | 42.5% | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
| -2.854 | 22.5% | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -3.083 | 67.9% | How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| -4.774 | 96.9% | What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -5.451 | 99.4% | How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -5.696 | 22.1% | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| -11.094 | 99.8% | What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| -14.263 | 98.4% | What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -22.543 | 99.4% | What will be the median cost of a visit to space for a private citizen? (2025) | Continuous |
| -22.816 | 99.9% | What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2024) | Continuous |
| -31.012 | 96.9% | What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -35.525 | 90.1% | Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025? | Binary |
| -42.441 | 99.9% | What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2025) | Continuous |
| -45.890 | 99.2% | How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (October 1, 2025) | Continuous |
| -62.200 | 99.9% | What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |