draaglom

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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11.47	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
90.484	How many NCAA Division I schools will have both their men’s and women’s basketball teams make the 2023 NCAA Division I Basketball Tournament?	Continuous
64.944	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
63.594	What will be the total burned area (in hectares) of the Canadian wildfires on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
61.223	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
60.816	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor)	Continuous
51.073	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
50.769	How many moves will be played in the first four rounds of the Ding - Nepo FIDE World Chess Championship 2023?	Continuous
48.494	How many individuals will the New York City Department of Homeless Services report as being "in shelter" on May 22nd, 2023?	Continuous
45.039	What discretionary funding level will President Biden request for NASA in his 2024 budget?	Continuous
44.551	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
43.504	How many countries will be less happy in 2022 as compared to 2019 according to the World Happiness Report?	Continuous
39.142	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
38.655	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
37.867	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
37.600	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
37.219	How many beginners will be in the top 20 of the Point Rankings for Questions Opened in the Last 30 Days on February 28?	Continuous
36.440	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
35.302	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
32.317	How many ratings will Prince Harry's book Spare have on Amazon on January 20th at 7:00 pm GMT?	Continuous
31.870	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
31.068	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
30.537	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
30.410	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
27.324	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
26.404	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
26.018	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
25.969	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
25.320	How many U.S. jurisdictions will experience "high" or "very high" influenza activity for the week ending January 21, 2023?	Continuous
25.148	Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country?	Binary
24.985	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
24.783	Will the Nigerian Presidential Election on February 25th go to a run-off vote?	Binary
23.776	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
22.516	How many YouTube views will Center - Day 30 - Return by Yoga With Adriene have at the following dates? (February 1)	Continuous
22.055	What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023?	Continuous
21.788	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
20.460	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
20.411	How many tech employees will be laid off in 2023 by April 25th?	Continuous
20.191	What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
19.809	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped)	Continuous
19.781	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
19.679	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
19.664	Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?	Binary
19.200	Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022?	Binary
19.139	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
18.996	What will be the final value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2023?	Continuous
18.980	Fed raises interest rates in June 2023? (No) → S&P 500 closing value on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
18.218	Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31, 2023?	Binary
17.448	Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?	Binary
16.956	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
16.908	Will the S&P 500 increase or decrease by more than 2% when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 21-22, 2023?	Binary
16.572	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan)	Binary
16.338	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
15.520	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
14.886	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
14.767	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
14.542	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
14.515	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
14.496	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
14.160	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
14.145	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Peter Obi)	Binary
13.968	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
13.917	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
13.912	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
13.866	Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?	Binary
13.651	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
13.523	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
12.619	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
12.516	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
12.439	Will either of last year's disc golf champions, Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg, win 1st place in Jonesboro again this year?	Binary
11.969	Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?	Binary
11.520	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
11.506	Will the OpenAI Tour 2023 plan to visit more than one African destination as of April 10th?	Binary
11.195	How many additional H5N1 infections will be reported in wild birds across the United States by the end of March 2023?	Continuous
11.116	Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?	Binary
10.935	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
10.274	How many coronation medals will be awarded as part of King Charles III coronation?	Continuous
9.904	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
9.726	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
9.699	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
9.632	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
9.439	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
9.135	How many YouTube views will Center - Day 30 - Return by Yoga With Adriene have at the following dates? (February 14)	Continuous
8.914	Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022?	Binary
8.614	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Bola Tinubu)	Binary
8.397	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
8.023	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
7.652	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
7.328	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.213	Will "All Quiet on the Western Front" win Best Picture - Non-English Language at the 2023 Golden Globe Awards?	Binary
7.192	Will the winner of stage 9 of the 2023 Tour De France also hold the yellow jersey at the end of the stage?	Binary
7.107	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
7.026	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
7.024	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
6.801	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
6.453	Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?	Binary
6.449	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
6.355	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
6.347	Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?	Binary
6.240	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
6.236	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
6.134	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (August 19)	Continuous
5.881	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
5.469	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
5.325	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.577	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
4.021	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.857	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
3.815	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
3.619	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
3.585	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
3.408	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Atiku Abubakar)	Binary
3.135	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
3.000	In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012?	Binary
2.986	Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?	Binary
2.590	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
2.043	Will the German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) go on strike again before January 1, 2024?	Binary
2.011	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes)	Binary
1.873	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
1.758	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
1.185	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
1.162	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
1.133	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
0.926	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
0.898	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
0.725	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
0.415	Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?	Binary
0.131	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Rabiu Kwankwaso)	Binary
0.089	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
-0.140	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.810	Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?	Binary
-1.060	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-1.378	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
-1.557	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
-3.084	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
-5.525	How many YouTube views will Center - Day 30 - Return by Yoga With Adriene have at the following dates? (February 7)	Continuous
-5.538	How many goals will be scored in total across all four Champions League semifinal games in the 2022/23 season?	Continuous
-5.635	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
-5.873	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in January 2023?	Continuous
-6.979	How many seats will the Nation Alliance be reported to win in the 2023 Turkish parliamentary election?	Continuous
-8.795	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
-8.915	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Humza Yusaf)	Binary
-10.054	Will the March seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States be lower than 3.6%?	Binary
-10.353	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-16.270	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight?	Binary
-16.583	What will be the total finishing time for the 2023 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)?	Continuous
-20.249	How many new forecasters will be in the top 20 of the Beginner Tournament at the end of the tournament?	Continuous
-22.497	Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?	Binary
-23.843	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
-23.989	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
-31.204	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-32.407	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
-35.427	Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th?	Binary
-41.837	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
-54.109	Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow?	Binary
-64.333	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous