evergreenemily

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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9.799		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
117.989	90.8%	How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2026?	Continuous
107.818	68.7%	How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
101.218	92.9%	What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
80.131	99.8%	Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?	Binary
72.067	99.6%	What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2025)	Continuous
69.336	93.9%	How many zero emission light vehicles will be available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) in the United States for the following model years? (2025)	Continuous
59.057	45.2%	Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?	Binary
53.104	68.7%	What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
51.122	99.4%	What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
44.293	43.8%	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
38.327	98.2%	When will the federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (classified documents case)	Continuous
36.611	47.6%	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?	Binary
36.537	75.9%	How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
33.489	31.2%	How many confirmed children will Elon Musk have by end of 2025?	Continuous
33.451	50.7%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024)	Binary
27.105	60.6%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn)	Continuous
27.016	99.8%	Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?	Binary
25.736	56.5%	What will be India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report for the following years? (2024)	Continuous
25.568	35.8%	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
25.501	84.5%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Terran R)	Continuous
23.100	90.8%	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
23.067	31.1%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
22.999	64.8%	What percentage of Hispanic or Latino voters will vote Republican in 2024?	Continuous
22.534	68.2%	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
21.999	44.0%	When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy?	Continuous
21.835	29.9%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
20.588	30.5%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
19.964	97.6%	Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026?	Binary
19.811	34.5%	When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
19.679	15.7%	When will the order providing for Title 42 expulsions no longer be in effect in the United States?	Continuous
19.577	30.5%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
18.659	96.1%	If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?	Binary
17.491	88.8%	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
17.178	30.4%	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
16.622	36.3%	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
16.503	75.5%	Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025?	Binary
15.528	34.9%	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
15.056	82.2%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Democratic)	Continuous
14.699	83.3%	Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
14.195	39.9%	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
13.181	84.6%	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
12.956	63.7%	What will the world population be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
12.627	39.0%	What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?	Continuous
11.650	84.7%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (October 1, 2025)	Continuous
11.357	99.2%	Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?	Binary
11.300	60.5%	What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election?	Continuous
10.965	47.1%	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
10.776	38.2%	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
10.700	46.0%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
10.435	63.4%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Conservative)	Binary
10.362	84.9%	Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?	Binary
10.285	96.0%	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
10.187	39.5%	What will be the world population in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
10.185	99.6%	Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?	Binary
10.063	47.7%	What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?	Continuous
9.909	62.0%	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
9.709	98.7%	Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?	Binary
9.651	58.4%	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
9.460	13.4%	What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022?	Continuous
9.351	46.1%	Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election?	Binary
9.289	81.3%	Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
9.140	79.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
9.047	33.4%	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
8.707	18.8%	When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers?	Continuous
8.676	39.0%	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
8.587	52.4%	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
8.399	22.6%	How many ketamine infusion clinics will there be on January 1, 2025 in the USA?	Continuous
8.392	37.4%	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
7.975	63.4%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Liberal)	Binary
7.498	99.4%	Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
7.340	48.4%	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
7.213	50.3%	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
7.022	25.2%	When will WHO recommend widespread use of a malaria vaccine that is >75% effective?	Continuous
6.730	93.8%	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2026?	Binary
6.536	84.6%	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
6.472	34.6%	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories))	Binary
6.444	69.4%	When will the Republican presidential nominee next win the state of Massachusetts in a US Presidential Election? (2024)	Binary
6.188	99.9%	Will Bud Light cease production by 2026?	Binary
6.104	50.1%	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
6.062	51.9%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
5.827	49.9%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
5.656	49.6%	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
5.603	37.1%	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
5.586	74.1%	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
5.455	97.8%	Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025?	Binary
5.285	64.6%	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
5.220	25.5%	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
5.178	73.3%	Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?	Binary
5.081	56.8%	In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
5.032	56.9%	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
5.005	72.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
4.921	35.7%	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
4.863	94.1%	Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024?	Binary
4.693	11.6%	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
4.639	15.8%	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2025)	Continuous
4.555	37.4%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
4.545	52.9%	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
4.351	42.9%	Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?	Binary
4.194	99.5%	Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?	Binary
4.098	37.4%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
3.865	26.7%	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
3.733	82.8%	Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025?	Binary
3.707	74.8%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1)	Binary
3.662	75.7%	How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
3.637	47.8%	Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections?	Binary
3.430	74.8%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2)	Binary
3.421	11.4%	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
3.370	51.4%	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
3.345	79.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
3.082	6.6%	Will Amy Wax no longer have tenure at a top-24 US university before 2026?	Binary
3.020	79.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
2.957	82.2%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Republican)	Continuous
2.865	11.4%	Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?	Binary
2.731	20.6%	Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?	Binary
2.724	47.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
2.720	30.7%	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
2.568	78.3%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
2.556	22.6%	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
2.482	34.7%	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour))	Binary
2.479	51.9%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
2.248	32.9%	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
2.202	79.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
2.189	9.4%	What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
2.161	91.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
2.149	57.7%	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
2.070	79.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
1.964	79.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
1.942	58.3%	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
1.872	50.2%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
1.847	2.0%	Will China operate at least one military base in a BRICS country before 2026?	Binary
1.800	5.2%	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?	Binary
1.720	10.5%	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United Kingdom)	Binary
1.678	3.9%	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022?	Continuous
1.672	24.5%	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
1.589	11.2%	How many UN member states will formally recognize Taiwan at the end of 2025?	Continuous
1.587	20.5%	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
1.587	78.3%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
1.538	10.3%	What will be the median estimated range (in miles) of all-electric vehicles available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) for the following model years? (2025)	Continuous
1.538	51.9%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
1.529	99.5%	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2025)	Binary
1.525	3.4%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Reform)	Continuous
1.424	93.8%	Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?	Binary
1.400	33.8%	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
1.332	63.4%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (People's)	Binary
1.310	1.1%	What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?	Continuous
1.289	79.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
1.097	63.4%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Bloc Québécois)	Binary
1.094	10.5%	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United States)	Binary
1.090	79.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
1.003	50.2%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
0.987	51.9%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
0.922	11.5%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried)	Binary
0.906	51.9%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
0.906	51.9%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
0.883	77.3%	What will be India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report for the following years? (2025)	Continuous
0.872	63.4%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Green)	Binary
0.833	51.9%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
0.799	52.0%	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
0.636	51.9%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
0.621	8.6%	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
0.616	3.5%	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
0.535	50.2%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
0.517	12.5%	Will there be a successful coup in Cameroon before 2026?	Binary
0.515	63.4%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (New Democratic)	Binary
0.493	51.9%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
0.476	66.0%	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
0.455	14.8%	Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?	Binary
0.364	2.5%	Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?	Binary
0.342	22.5%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (No Labels)	Continuous
0.325	10.3%	What will be the annual average retail gasoline price (in 2022 USD per gallon) in the United States in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
0.233	3.5%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (DUP)	Continuous
0.120	0.7%	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
0.116	50.9%	Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?	Binary
0.116	1.5%	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
0.109	10.3%	What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
0.077	3.5%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Alliance)	Continuous
0.075	3.4%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Greens)	Continuous
0.070	0.4%	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
0.056	1.2%	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
0.055	0.4%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
0.051	1.0%	Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?	Binary
0.020	0.4%	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
0.000	0.0%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny some entities)	Binary
0.000	0.0%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries)	Binary
0.000	0.0%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
0.000	0.0%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)	Binary
0.000	0.0%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing)	Binary
0.000	0.0%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
0.000	0.0%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses)	Binary
-0.081	57.7%	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
-0.087	3.5%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Plaid Cymru)	Continuous
-0.251	65.3%	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-0.271	1.5%	Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?	Binary
-0.314	5.9%	How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-0.350	3.5%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (SDLP)	Continuous
-0.571	79.7%	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-0.620	3.5%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Sinn Féin)	Continuous
-0.810	60.2%	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
-0.848	12.9%	What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2025 Q2)	Continuous
-0.987	3.5%	Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?	Binary
-1.137	98.9%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?	Binary
-1.148	59.7%	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC)	Binary
-1.307	74.8%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3)	Binary
-1.984	10.4%	What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-2.191	99.8%	Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026?	Binary
-2.237	9.4%	What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-2.291	7.1%	Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
-2.518	59.7%	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP)	Binary
-2.600	58.3%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
-3.455	47.8%	When will the next UK general election take place?	Continuous
-3.693	69.0%	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
-3.776	93.7%	Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?	Binary
-4.178	94.0%	Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?	Binary
-4.266	99.0%	Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?	Binary
-4.288	82.2%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Green)	Continuous
-4.518	98.0%	Will the majority of companies in the United States offer remote or hybrid work options in 2025?	Binary
-4.520	82.2%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Forward)	Continuous
-4.747	49.6%	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
-5.448	30.5%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat)	Continuous
-6.353	44.0%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Ariane 6)	Continuous
-8.482	62.6%	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-9.249	23.2%	What will real GDP growth be in the United States in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-9.519	27.4%	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-13.999	26.0%	What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2025 Q3)	Continuous
-15.056	33.5%	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-15.593	82.2%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Libertarian)	Continuous
-15.987	84.5%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Starship)	Continuous
-16.284	51.9%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-18.983	19.3%	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-19.822	25.8%	How many Falcon 9 failures will there be before 2026?	Continuous
-20.056	53.9%	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
-20.183	61.2%	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
-22.481	27.5%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur)	Continuous
-30.545	84.5%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Neutron)	Continuous
-30.838	98.4%	What will be the number of US states with "right to charge" regulations in 2025?	Continuous
-33.548	79.5%	What will the US life expectancy be in 2023?	Continuous
-42.690	100.0%	How many months in prison will Andrew Tate be sentenced to before 2026?	Continuous
-49.907	95.4%	What will be the water level of Lake Mead (in feet) at the end of July of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-50.155	52.2%	What will be Ukraine's score in The Democracy Index in 2024?	Continuous
-53.254	47.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-60.521	82.6%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Trabucco)	Binary
-92.099	77.1%	What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-125.164	99.4%	How many states will have legally enforceable rules that are at least as stringent as Advanced Clean Cars II on January 1 of the following years? (2025)	Continuous