Haiku

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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44.3		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
152.023	97.5%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
151.148	97.4%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
135.592	98.2%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
132.746	92.3%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
132.140	97.7%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
119.029	97.4%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
107.686	94.0%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
99.288	94.0%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
99.288	98.9%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
96.603	92.9%	What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
95.381	64.3%	What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025?	Continuous
89.790	95.6%	Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?	Binary
87.557	85.2%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
78.922	91.3%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
73.766	98.3%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
73.495	97.9%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
72.873	78.9%	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
72.499	94.2%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
71.086	90.1%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
71.069	99.9%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
68.618	96.6%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
67.223	99.6%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
66.102	94.9%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
64.810	98.9%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
64.560	98.4%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
58.581	94.3%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
57.087	98.8%	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
56.109	92.9%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
54.954	98.9%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
52.154	59.3%	Will Faith Kipyegon break the 4-minute mile on June 26, 2025?	Binary
51.961	98.4%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
50.354	92.9%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
48.373	82.4%	Will Sam Altman and Elon Musk be on the stage together at YC AI Startup School?	Binary
48.246	98.9%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
43.762	95.3%	How many seconds until midnight will the Doomsday Clock show on January 29, 2025?	Multiple Choice
40.191	72.8%	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
39.460	85.8%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
39.093	97.9%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
38.363	92.9%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
35.153	97.1%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
34.714	89.9%	Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?	Binary
33.554	80.1%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
33.187	90.2%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
33.150	98.4%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
33.080	88.0%	How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?	Continuous
32.134	79.4%	What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX?	Continuous
31.852	98.8%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
31.801	86.9%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
27.713	97.6%	How many Cabinet-level Trump nominations will be confirmed by the US Senate before February 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
26.893	91.4%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
22.923	87.3%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
22.453	87.0%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
22.192	98.9%	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
20.578	95.7%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
17.396	98.7%	Will the National Archivist certify and publish the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution by June 30, 2025?	Binary
16.243	98.1%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
15.090	32.3%	Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?	Multiple Choice
14.675	55.3%	Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?	Binary
12.913	59.9%	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
12.713	99.4%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
12.673	98.7%	Will Elizabeth MacDonough, the current Senate parliamentarian, be removed or resign by June 30, 2025?	Binary
11.328	29.2%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
11.188	16.9%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
9.825	19.4%	How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?	Continuous
9.091	99.3%	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
8.890	15.2%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
8.557	93.1%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
8.213	98.1%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
7.990	11.3%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
7.887	99.4%	Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion?	Binary
7.588	96.3%	Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?	Binary
7.182	64.2%	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
6.396	97.7%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
5.614	58.2%	Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025?	Binary
5.303	35.7%	Will the Department of Justice or Education open a civil compliance investigation into whether diversity-related programs at Harvard constitute illegal discrimination or preferences before 2026?	Binary
5.229	79.9%	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
2.330	30.1%	Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?	Binary
2.236	11.8%	Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025?	Binary
1.780	19.8%	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?	Binary
-0.134	0.4%	Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025?	Binary
-0.506	5.3%	What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
-0.838	11.8%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
-1.107	79.8%	What will be the the global surface air temperature on April 1, 2025?	Continuous
-1.870	88.1%	Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?	Binary
-3.644	99.1%	Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?	Binary
-4.266	93.4%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-4.542	7.7%	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
-7.083	97.9%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
-8.202	59.4%	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
-16.458	97.6%	Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025?	Binary
-17.825	79.9%	Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?	Binary
-27.232	44.3%	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-47.656	35.2%	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-51.615	99.0%	What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on it's public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?	Continuous
-104.794	98.2%	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
-134.395	93.0%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary