Question
Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?
Total Forecasters61
Community Prediction
5%
(2.8% - 12.6%)
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Authors:
Opened:May 17, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:May 19, 2023
How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?
5.31
Will every frontier AI lab collaborate with at least one other frontier lab on AI alignment or safety research, on January 1, 2030?
20%
Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?
2.5%
Authors:
Opened:May 17, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:May 19, 2023
How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?
5.31
Will every frontier AI lab collaborate with at least one other frontier lab on AI alignment or safety research, on January 1, 2030?
20%
Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?
2.5%