53 comments
318 forecasters
Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?
0.4%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 0% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jun 22, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolved:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 23, 2021
Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?
28% chance
55
Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?
2.5% chance
61
Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?
80% chance
174