1 comment
86 forecasters
Will there be an offensive nuclear detonation on a nation's capital by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere by 2024?
16%chance
Annulled
The community gave this a 16% chance, and it resolved Annulled.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Oct 7, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2024
Resolved:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 9, 2021
If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?
21.9% chance
20
If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?
Nov 2035
(15 Nov 2028 - Nov 2054)
Nov 2035
(15 Nov 2028 - Nov 2054)
23 forecasters
At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?
75% chance
34