5 comments
31 forecasters
Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?
65%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 65% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Oct 7, 2021
Closes:Apr 1, 2022
Resolved:Jan 1, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 9, 2021
If nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?
32% chance
59
If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?
25% chance
45
Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?
72% chance
27