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Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

35%chance

12% this week

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Jul 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

12 Jan 2027

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

0.3%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

25%chance

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

23 Aug 2025

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

28%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

10%chance

Will there be a "World War Three" before 2050?

23%chance

Key Factor

All five geographical regions defined by SIPRI saw rises in military spending for the first time since 2009, with Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Oceania recording particularly large increases.

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

28%chance