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377
comments
870
forecasters
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
251
comments
1.5k
forecasters
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
25%
chance
44
comments
429
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
30%
chance
20
comments
293
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
20%
chance
234
comments
762
forecasters
Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?
3%
chance
47
comments
247
forecasters
Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?
84.1%
chance
622
comments
1.8k
forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Aug 2033
90
comments
1.6k
forecasters
Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?
23%
chance
80
comments
623
forecasters
Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?
35%
chance
5%
this week
559
comments
1.7k
forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
09 Jul 2027
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