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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

result07 Aug 2025 17:00

Key Factor

Break out of other LLM (Gemini, Claude...)

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

Key Factor

Possibility of AI smarter than humans, with goal of wiping out humans

Key Factor

Possibility of AI smarter than humans, with goal of wiping out humans

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes

Gretchen Whitmerresult: No

Pete Buttigiegresult: No

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?