• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
🗳️
US Democracy Threat Index
❓
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
🗞️
In the News
🦾
AI Forecasting Benchmark
💎
Metaculus Cup
🌍
AI Pathways
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
377 comments
870 forecasters

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

251 comments
1.5k forecasters

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

25%chance
44 comments
429 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

30%chance
20 comments
293 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%chance
234 comments
762 forecasters

Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?

3%chance
47 comments
247 forecasters

Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?

84.1%chance
622 comments
1.8k forecasters

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
Aug 2033
90 comments
1.6k forecasters

Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?

23%chance
80 comments
623 forecasters

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

35%chance
5% this week
559 comments
1.7k forecasters

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
09 Jul 2027