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When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

02 May 2027

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?

Forecast revealed tomorrow

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Jul 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

Futurama29.3%
AI-Dystopia28%
Singularia17.3%
and 2 others

Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

94%chance

How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

7121

Q3 AI Benchmarking: Did Bots Outperform Human Forecasters?

12
13 comments13

A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic

resultNo

Contributed by the Odborný Predikční Tým community.

What is the probability that a state of emergency, a state of danger, and a state of threat to the state will be declared in the Czech Republic by the end of 2025?

State of emergency10%
Danger status60%
State of emergency0.5%

A is in the I of the beholder #3: it's beAIutiful!

resultNo