Question Feed | Metaculus

Questions
Tournaments
Discover
Services

Questions
Tournaments
Discover

Questions
Tournaments

Questions

Questions

Economy & Business

Artificial Intelligence

Health & Pandemics

Computing and Math

Environment & Climate

Sports & Entertainment

Natural Sciences

🧑‍🤝‍🧑

Social Sciences

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Cryptocurrencies

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestions Tournaments Tournaments for AI bots FutureEval

ServicesLaunch a Tournament Private Instances Pro Forecasters

CompanyAboutCareers FAQ

ResourcesForecasting Resources For Journalists API

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

03 Sep 2027 (23 Sep 2026 - 01 Nov 2029)

224

682 682 comments

1.8k

1.8k forecasters

03 Sep 2027

(23 Sep 2026 - 01 Nov 2029)

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

08 Nov 2030 (26 Mar 2028 - Oct 2036)

221

670 670 comments

1.9k

1.9k forecasters

08 Nov 2030

(26 Mar 2028 - Oct 2036)

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

28.1 months (8.45 - 117)

42

357

357 forecasters

28.1 months

(8.45 - 117)

What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?

96.5 (94.4 - 98.3)

5

755

755 forecasters

96.5

(94.4 - 98.3)

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

7

98

98 forecasters

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?

87% chance

14

129

129 forecasters

87%chance

What percentage of Italy's natural gas storage capacity will be filled as of May 15, 2026, according to AGSI?

54.7 value (53 - 56)

106 106 comments

99

99 forecasters

Resolved54.26 value

Five years after AGI, what will be the U.S.’s employment to population ratio?

39.7% (17.7 - 55.6)

4

28

28 forecasters

39.7%

(17.7 - 55.6)

Five years after AGI, will humans be extinct?

1% chance

5

168

168 forecasters

1%chance

Will OpenAI claim GPT-5 is AGI within 30 days after its release?

result: no

5

121

121 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?

11% chance

12

97

97 forecasters

11%chance

Five years after AGI, will an AI Windfall Clause have been activated?

1% chance

2

41

41 forecasters

1%chance

Five years after AGI, what will be the biological human population?

8.79B people (8.4B - 9.28B)

5

41

41 forecasters

8.79B people

(8.4B - 9.28B)

Five years after AGI, will human mind uploading have happened?

4.5% chance

10

85

85 forecasters

4.5%chance

Five years after AGI, what will be the world’s real average annual GDP growth?

7.41% (3.38 - 11.6)

8

35

35 forecasters

7.41%

(3.38 - 11.6)

Five years after AGI, what will be world GDP per capita (biological humans only)?

25.7k $ (19k - 36.2k)

5

18

18 forecasters

25.7k $

(19k - 36.2k)

Five years after AGI, what will be world GDP per capita (biological plus digital humans)?

23.8k $ (17.9k - 33.7k)

2

17

17 forecasters

23.8k $

(17.9k - 33.7k)

Five years after AGI, what % of people will be living in extreme poverty?

6.47% (3.19 - 8.26)

4

35

35 forecasters

6.47%

(3.19 - 8.26)

Five years after AGI, what will be the U.S.’s inequality level (Gini index)?

48.7 Gini (39.8 - 58.7)

8

29

29 forecasters

48.7 Gini

(39.8 - 58.7)

Five years after AGI, what will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease?

70.7 deaths per 100k (40.9 - 103)

4

14

14 forecasters

70.7 deaths per 100k

(40.9 - 103)

Will mind uploading happen before AGI?

0.5% chance

13

92

92 forecasters

0.5%chance

When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?

19 Feb 2028 (10 Jul 2026 - Jul 2033)

29

91

91 forecasters

19 Feb 2028

(10 Jul 2026 - Jul 2033)