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When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

10 Oct 2027 (29 Sep 2026 - 24 Jul 2030)

224

653 653 comments

1.8k

1.8k forecasters

10 Oct 2027

(29 Sep 2026 - 24 Jul 2030)

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Oct 2031 (08 Aug 2028 - Mar 2039)

220

660 660 comments

1.9k

1.9k forecasters

Oct 2031

(08 Aug 2028 - Mar 2039)

What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?

96.7 (94.4 - 98.4)

5

747

747 forecasters

96.7

(94.4 - 98.4)

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

7

91

91 forecasters

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

29.8 months (8.85 - 125)

42

352

352 forecasters

29.8 months

(8.85 - 125)

Five years after AGI, how happy will people be?

4.99 score (3.96 - 5.72)

2

48

48 forecasters

4.99 score

(3.96 - 5.72)

Five years after AGI, what will be the U.S.’s employment to population ratio?

39.7% (17.7 - 55.6)

4

28

28 forecasters

39.7%

(17.7 - 55.6)

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

2.32 years (-3.25 - 13.8)

14

70

70 forecasters

2.32 years

(-3.25 - 13.8)

Will the control problem be solved before the creation of "weak" Artificial General Intelligence?

1% chance

25

218

218 forecasters

1%chance

What percentage of Italy's natural gas storage capacity will be filled as of May 15, 2026, according to AGSI?

54.7 value (53 - 56)

106 106 comments

99

99 forecasters

Resolved54.26 value

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

1160 hours (286 - 3958)

18

67

67 forecasters

1160 hours

(286 - 3958)

Will OpenAI claim GPT-5 is AGI within 30 days after its release?

result: no

5

121

121 forecasters

ResolvedNo

Five years after AGI, will humans be extinct?

1% chance

5

166

166 forecasters

1%chance

Five years after AGI, what will be the world’s real average annual GDP growth?

7.41% (3.38 - 11.6)

8

35

35 forecasters

7.41%

(3.38 - 11.6)

Five years after AGI, will there be universal basic income?

25% chance

13

189

189 forecasters

25%chance

When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?

10 Feb 2028 (26 Jun 2026 - Jan 2033)

29

91

91 forecasters

10 Feb 2028

(26 Jun 2026 - Jan 2033)

Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?

58% chance

15

237

237 forecasters

58%chance

Five years after AGI, what will be the biological human population?

8.77B people (8.37B - 9.27B)

5

41

41 forecasters

8.77B people

(8.37B - 9.27B)

Five years after AGI, will human mind uploading have happened?

5% chance

10

85

85 forecasters

5%chance

Five years after AGI, what will be world GDP per capita (biological humans only)?

25.7k $ (19k - 36.2k)

5

18

18 forecasters

25.7k $

(19k - 36.2k)

Five years after AGI, what will be world GDP per capita (biological plus digital humans)?

23.8k $ (17.9k - 33.7k)

2

17

17 forecasters

23.8k $

(17.9k - 33.7k)

Five years after AGI, what % of people will be living in extreme poverty?

6.47% (3.19 - 8.26)

4

35

35 forecasters

6.47%

(3.19 - 8.26)