What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?95.7 (92.5 - 97.9)52929 comments742742 forecasters95.7 (92.5 - 97.9)
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?23 Aug 2028 (25 Dec 2026 - Aug 2032)223623623 comments1.8k1.8k forecasters23 Aug 2028 (25 Dec 2026 - Aug 2032)
Five years after AGI, what will be the U.S.’s employment to population ratio?39.4% (23.8 - 55.4)444 comments2828 forecasters39.4% (23.8 - 55.4)
Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?85% chance1433 comments127127 forecasters85%chance
When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?05 Feb 2028 (18 Jun 2026 - Jan 2033)293030 comments9191 forecasters05 Feb 2028 (18 Jun 2026 - Jan 2033)
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?3.35 years (-2.24 - 15.1)142626 comments6969 forecasters3.35 years (-2.24 - 15.1)
Five years after AGI, will there be universal basic income?25% chance131111 comments181181 forecasters25%chance
Five years after AGI, will an AI Windfall Clause have been activated?1% chance211 comment4141 forecasters1%chance
What percentage of Italy's natural gas storage capacity will be filled as of May 15, 2026, according to AGSI?54.7 value (53 - 56)106106 comments9999 forecastersResolved54.26 value
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?Oct 2032 (16 Apr 2029 - Apr 2040)219654654 comments1.9k1.9k forecastersOct 2032 (16 Apr 2029 - Apr 2040)
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?34.7 months (9.34 - 151)405151 comments348348 forecasters34.7 months (9.34 - 151)
Five years after AGI, will human mind uploading have happened?4.5% chance1099 comments8484 forecasters4.5%chance
What inflation-adjusted return will the Vanguard Information Technology ETF yield from 2021-2040 if AGI arrives by 2040, in percentage points?1555% (317 - 9698)91212 comments2727 forecasters1555% (317 - 9698)
Will OpenAI claim GPT-5 is AGI within 30 days after its release?result: no52525 comments121121 forecastersResolvedNo
Five years after AGI, what will be the world’s real average annual GDP growth?5.93% (3.27 - 12.3)833 comments3535 forecasters5.93% (3.27 - 12.3)
Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?11% chance1233 comments9696 forecasters11%chance
Five years after AGI, what will be the biological human population?8.74B people (8.32B - 9.27B)511 comment4141 forecasters8.74B people (8.32B - 9.27B)
Five years after AGI, what will be world GDP per capita (biological humans only)?25.5k $ (18.9k - 36k)50 comments1818 forecasters25.5k $ (18.9k - 36k)