When will Anthropic IPO?23 Nov 2026 (17 Nov 2026 10:17 - 05 Dec 2026)53535 comments4141 forecasters23 Nov 2026 (17 Nov 2026 10:17 - 05 Dec 2026)
Will Anthropic publicly file an S-1 IPO registration statement with the SEC before October 2, 2026?result: no169169 comments172172 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Nvidia's anchor investment in Anthropic's IPO be publicly confirmed before October 2, 2026?result: no169169 comments172172 forecastersResolvedNo
If Anthropic files a public IPO prospectus by September 17, 2026, which U.S. exchange will it name as its intended listing venue?146146 comments154154 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?45222222 comments335335 forecasters
Will a new Clay Millennium Prize be awarded entirely to individual humans before 2040?15% chance144 comments1111 forecasters15%chance
What will be the average performance on ANIMA for AI models released between June 2026 and June 2027?71.2 (68.8 - 74.1)111 comment5252 forecasters71.2 (68.8 - 74.1)
Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?60% chance55 comments3030 forecasters60%chance
Will a representative survey in a G20 country find, before 2050, that a majority of adults believe AI has subjective experience?70% chance111 comment1313 forecasters70%chance
Will online prediction markets cease to exist before 2100?0.1% chance-211 comment33 forecasters0.1%chance
Will a company with 1 employee achieve a $1 billion valuation before 2030?15% chance277 comments7272 forecasters15%chance
What will be Anthropic's market cap when its IPO lock-up period ends?1.74T $ (1.14T - 2.53T)366 comments2222 forecasters1.74T $ (1.14T - 2.53T)
Will a 8-year gross world product doubling complete before a 2-year doubling does?66.7% chance82020 comments4747 forecasters66.7%chance
Before July 1, 2025, will Anthropic announce that it is planning an IPO?result: no7777 comments7373 forecastersResolvedNo
When will any national government, international organization, or supranational body formally acknowledge the moral patienthood of an AI system?12 Dec 2030 (24 Jan 2029 - >01 Jan 2031)22 comments88 forecasters12 Dec 2030 (24 Jan 2029 - >01 Jan 2031)
Before April 1, 2025, will Anthropic announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?result: no8282 comments2626 forecastersResolvedNo