Will the USA be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?36% chance899 comments6060 forecasters36%chance
Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?60% chance61010 comments5555 forecasters60%chance
Will thale cress, maize, and soybean achieve 50% faster transformation-to-T1 seed timelines before 2030?45% chance11 comment1919 forecasters45%chance
Will China ban abortion and contraception before 2051?10% chance124141 comments4747 forecasters10%chance
When will epigenome editing be used in human embryos as a therapeutic approach for genetic diseases?Oct 2034 (02 Mar 2031 - May 2038)211 comment55 forecastersOct 2034 (02 Mar 2031 - May 2038)
By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?result: yes1234343 comments525525 forecastersResolvedYes
Will gene editing of human embryos for therapeutic purposes be officially approved by any country before 2035?57% chance222 comments1313 forecasters57%chance
Will Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?40% chance51414 comments6767 forecasters40%chance
By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?67% chance528686 comments268268 forecasters67%chance
Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?85% chance112424 comments9292 forecasters85%chance
Which reproductive technology will achieve more clinical trial successes in human trait selection by 2035?20 comments44 forecasters
Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?5% chance41111 comments6565 forecasters5%chance
When will we see the first live birth from human in vitro gametogenesis?Aug 2031 (15 Aug 2028 - Jul 2037)1399 comments4747 forecastersAug 2031 (15 Aug 2028 - Jul 2037)
By the year 2100, will any jurisdiction enforce requirements for all births to be genetically engineered?51% chance173838 comments5858 forecasters51%chance
Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?17.6% chance72525 comments7979 forecasters17.6%chance
By 2050, Will at least 20% of US births be screened as embryos to detect genetic disorders or disabilities?60% chance922 comments3131 forecasters60%chance
How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?25.2 babies (3.99 - 282)351414 comments117117 forecasters25.2 babies (3.99 - 282)
Will Singapore be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?28% chance433 comments2828 forecasters28%chance
Will India be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?17% chance33 comments1111 forecasters17%chance
When will a person who was not screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parents for not doing so?Mar 2057 (Sep 2042 - 2080)811 comment1717 forecastersMar 2057 (Sep 2042 - 2080)
Will India be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?10% chance333 comments3434 forecastersAnnulled
Will Singapore be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?70% chance1033 comments4040 forecasters70%chance
Will Republicans support embryo selection for intelligence more than Democrats?50% chance63030 comments8484 forecasters50%chance
When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?05 Jul 2029 (11 Jan 2027 - May 2035)333939 comments120120 forecasters05 Jul 2029 (11 Jan 2027 - May 2035)