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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
0 comments
3 forecasters

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

30%chance
12.9% this week
379 comments
886 forecasters

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

18 comments
190 forecasters

Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?

resultNo
46 comments
29 forecasters

Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?

resultNo
33 comments
264 forecasters

Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?

resultNo
0 comments
99 forecasters

Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?

8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

condition

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

33 forecasters
if yes
if no

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

60%
60%

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

67%
67%
5
0 comments
33
33 forecasters
The Taiwan Tinderbox
33 comments
188 forecasters

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

50%chance
23 comments
166 forecasters

If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?

65%chance
41 comments
1.5k forecasters

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

60%chance