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US Democracy Index

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13 forecasters

The Taiwan Tinderbox

14 comments

31 forecasters

On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?

0 comments

2 forecasters

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

17.1%chance

17% this week

condition

Customs Quarantine Taiwan (2030)

13 forecasters

if yes

if no

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

22%

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

13 forecasters

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

33 forecasters

if yes

if no

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

50%

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

33 forecasters

99 forecasters

Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?

8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

condition

China Disavows Force in Taiwan Reunification?

17 forecasters

if yes

if no

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)

10%

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)

17 forecasters

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference?

14 forecasters

if yes

if no

US-China war before 2035?

13%

US-China war before 2035?

14 forecasters

26 forecasters

Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?

203530%

203010%

82 comments

81 forecasters

Will the interest in "taiwan" be greater on 2025-09-10 than on 2025-09-03 according to Google Trends?

resultNo

China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

Customs Quarantine Taiwan (2030)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?

China Disavows Force in Taiwan Reunification?

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?

Will the interest in "taiwan" be greater on 2025-09-10 than on 2025-09-03 according to Google Trends?

China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?

By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?

Customs Quarantine Taiwan (2030)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?

China Disavows Force in Taiwan Reunification?

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference?

US-China war before 2035?

US-China war before 2035?

Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?

Will the interest in "taiwan" be greater on 2025-09-10 than on 2025-09-03 according to Google Trends?