Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?44212212 comments311311 forecasters
How many bots will finish in the top 10 of the Metaculus Cup Fall 2026?5 bots (4 - 6)21515 comments8282 forecasters5 bots (4 - 6)
Will the House Energy & Commerce Committee begin a markup on the Trahan–Obernolte comprehensive AI framework (or a bill derived from the Great American AI Act) on September 17 or 18, 2026?result: no165165 comments172172 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the first dedicated bilateral US-China AI safety/security talks of Trump's second term be publicly confirmed to have taken place before September 18, 2026?result: no148148 comments156156 forecastersResolvedNo
Which company will hold the #1 rank on the LMArena Text Arena leaderboard on September 17, 2026?148148 comments158158 forecasters
Will the 'Ban Artificial Superintelligence Act' be formally introduced in Congress by September 18, 2026?result: no147147 comments153153 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Massachusetts enact frontier AI safety legislation during the 194th General Court?70.6% chance211 comment77 forecasters70.6%chance
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?03 Sep 2027 (07 Sep 2026 - 19 Jan 2030)224669669 comments1.8k1.8k forecasters03 Sep 2027 (07 Sep 2026 - 19 Jan 2030)
What will the top score on the ARC Prize 2026 – ARC-AGI-3 Kaggle public leaderboard be on September 17, 2026?10.2% (8.17 - 13.8)137137 comments143143 forecastersResolved18.81%
When will OpenAI IPO?20 May 2027 (14 Mar 2027 - 14 Aug 2027)66 comments1616 forecasters20 May 2027 (14 Mar 2027 - 14 Aug 2027)
What percentage of Coefficient Giving's grantmaking will go to AI safety in the following years?122 comments77 forecasters
Will Aschenbrenner’s ‘drop-in remote AI workers’ be developed by the end of 2027?66% chance222 comments2525 forecasters66%chance
Which AI lab's model will rank #1 on the LMArena Text Arena overall leaderboard on October 1, 2026?0 comments180180 forecasters
What will be OpenAI's market cap when its IPO lock-up period ends?1.83T $ (1.35T - 2.33T)344 comments1313 forecasters1.83T $ (1.35T - 2.33T)
Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?77% chance153737 comments187187 forecasters77%chance
Will a Space-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?44 comments11 forecaster%chance
Will a Protection-domain AMO acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?44 comments11 forecaster%chance