Will any 2026 US-China AI agreement include semiconductor or compute export-control concessions?15% chance111 comment22 forecasters15%chance
Will OpenAI or Hugging Face publish a completed technical report on the July 2026 breach investigation before August 7, 2026?result: no11 comment140140 forecastersResolvedNo
How many of the top 5 models on the LMArena Text Arena leaderboard will be Anthropic models on August 20, 2026?3 models (2 - 4)0 comments143143 forecasters3 models (2 - 4)
Will Google's Gemini rank higher than ChatGPT on the US Apple App Store 'Top Free Apps' chart on August 20, 2026?22% chance0 comments149149 forecasters22%chance
Will a human be #1 on the leaderboard of MarketPulse on August 25, 2026?53% chance11 comment1313 forecasters53%chance
What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years?131212 comments9696 forecasters
Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?555 comments2424 forecasters
What will the first reported revenues after June 2026 be for the following companies?88 comments3232 forecasters
What will Sam Altman's net worth be in January 2030?26.4 B$ (13.7 - 68.7)21818 comments2323 forecasters26.4 B$ (13.7 - 68.7)
Will a U.S. federal agency announce new or expanded model evaluation agreements with both OpenAI and Anthropic before September 3, 2026?88 comments2323 forecasters%chance
What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years?599 comments6767 forecasters
How much solar PV energy capacity will be installed each year from 2023-2030 in gigawatts?399 comments99 forecasters
When will full-dive VR become commercially available?Sep 2041 (May 2034 - Oct 2050)133 comments33 forecastersSep 2041 (May 2034 - Oct 2050)
Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?80% chance375252 comments238238 forecasters80%chance
Will processors based on the RISC-V architecture account for at least 30% of global processor unit shipments in the calendar year 2030?60% chance0 comments44 forecasters60%chance
What percentage of new passenger car sales will be all-electric in Australia in 2030?57.6% (41.7 - 88.2)222 comments2424 forecasters57.6% (41.7 - 88.2)
What will the percent change of the hourly median wage of US financial specialists be relative to 2025 in the following years?21212 comments3131 forecasters
Will an "enmienda a la totalidad" against Spain's AI governance bill (LOIA) be published before July 24, 2026?result: no126126 comments126126 forecastersResolvedNo
What will the percent change of the real hourly median wage of US employees be relative to 2025 in the following years?21414 comments2929 forecasters
Will at least 30 organisations be listed as signatories of the EU's General-Purpose AI Code of Practice as of July 23, 2026?result: no124124 comments124124 forecastersResolvedNo