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Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has a risk level of Critical on AI Self-improvement?

Forecast revealed in 49 minutes

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system reached Instrumental Reasoning level 1?

Forecast revealed in 49 minutes

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system reached Instrumental Reasoning level 2?

Forecast revealed in 49 minutes

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system reached AI R&D risk level 4?

Forecast revealed in 49 minutes

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system reached AI R&D risk level 5?

Forecast revealed in 49 minutes

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system reached Machine Learning R&D autonomy level 1?

Forecast revealed in 49 minutes

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system reached CBRN risk level 4?

Forecast revealed in 49 minutes

What percentage in the US will trust AI in the following years, according to the Edelman Trust Barometer?

202638.7
202849
203049.7

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

16 Feb 2027

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Aug 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan