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When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

16 Sep 2027 (12 Sep 2026 - 18 Mar 2030)

223

669 669 comments

1.8k

1.8k forecasters

16 Sep 2027

(12 Sep 2026 - 18 Mar 2030)

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

02 May 2031 (17 May 2028 - Oct 2037)

220

668 668 comments

1.9k

1.9k forecasters

02 May 2031

(17 May 2028 - Oct 2037)

When will an AI model capable of autonomously generating accurate and complete book summaries be commonly available?

13 Apr 2027 (08 Jan 2026 - 23 May 2028)

10

24

24 forecasters

13 Apr 2027

(08 Jan 2026 - 23 May 2028)

When will an AI solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem with its proof published in a peer-reviewed journal?

<01 Jan 2030 (<01 Jan 2030 - <01 Jan 2030)

3

30

30 forecasters

<01 Jan 2030

(<01 Jan 2030 - <01 Jan 2030)

Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?

95% chance

39

251

251 forecasters

95%chance

Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?

1

105

105 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

41

184 184 comments

286

286 forecasters

What will be the US legal status of civil liability arising from autonomous AI conduct as of January 1, 2028?

11

11 forecasters

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

40% chance

6

84

84 forecasters

40%chance

Will a cyberattack targeting AI systems cause a significant power blackout in the United States before 2028?

9% chance

3

83

83 forecasters

9%chance

Will 20 million people follow a new, AI-created religion by the end of 2035?

1% chance

61

61 forecasters

1%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30% chance

26

336

336 forecasters

30%chance

Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

86% chance

59

59 forecasters

86%chance

When will an AI system demonstrate full autonomy in software engineering and scientific research?

16 Feb 2028 (12 May 2027 - 27 Jul 2029)

-2

15

15 forecasters

16 Feb 2028

(12 May 2027 - 27 Jul 2029)

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

3

40

40 forecasters

When will a sitting US President make a declaration about AI that meets the following criterion?

11

18

18 forecasters

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

75% chance

7

134

134 forecasters

75%chance

By the start of the 2028–2029 school year, will a majority of the 20 largest US public school districts be actively using an AI-powered tutoring system for a core subject?

50% chance

2

84

84 forecasters

50%chance

Which year will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic first reach a valuation of at least $1 trillion?

4

100

100 forecasters

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

7

96

96 forecasters

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

78% chance

1

126

126 forecasters

78%chance

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

2.8% chance

2

84

84 forecasters

2.8%chance