Contributed by the AI Diffusion community.
0 comments
3 forecasters
What will be the total disclosed VC funding levels globally invested in AI startups during 2029?
Current estimate
924B $
3 comments
58 forecasters
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
Alphabet32.7%
OpenAI23.2%
Anthropic18%
7 comments
123 forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
2 or 348.8%
0 or 131.7%
4 or 513.4%
18 comments
72 forecasters
Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?
45%chance
36 comments
65 forecasters
Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?
13%chance
3.3% this week
630 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
May 2033
564 comments
1.7k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
27 Sep 2027
0 comments
31 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH29%
Google Cloud14.2%
Microsoft Azure14%
2 comments
56 forecasters
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?
85%chance