14 comments
85 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind13%
Microsoft5%
xAI3%
3 comments
13 forecasters
When will the New York Times publish an article that it claims or acknowledges is 100% written by AI?
In 2026-202744.7%
In 2028-202924.6%
2030 or later21.6%
5 comments
35 forecasters
Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?
18%chance
0 comments
29 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH16%
Microsoft Azure14%
Google Cloud12%
6 comments
52 forecasters
Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?
48%chance
Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
0 comments
12 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?
30%chance
20% this week
2 comments
38 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH27%
Microsoft Azure5%
Amazon Web Services5%
2 comments
33 forecasters
Will a cyberattack targeting AI systems cause a significant power blackout in the United States before 2028?
5%chance
4% this week