Will a bot finish in the top 5 of the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?98% chance0 comments1717 forecasters98%chance
Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?73% chance375050 comments236236 forecasters73%chance
Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?98.2% chance331919 comments177177 forecasters98.2%chance
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?15 Oct 2028 (22 Jan 2027 - Aug 2032)224624624 comments1.8k1.8k forecasters15 Oct 2028 (22 Jan 2027 - Aug 2032)
When will a sitting US President make a declaration about AI that meets the following criterion?111717 comments1717 forecasters
Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?1% chance21111 comments8282 forecasters1%chance
When will an AI solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem with its proof published in a peer-reviewed journal?<01 Jan 2030 (<01 Jan 2030 - 19 May 2030)32121 comments2626 forecasters<01 Jan 2030 (<01 Jan 2030 - 19 May 2030)
Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?131919 comments8484 forecasters
When will an AI system demonstrate full autonomy in software engineering and scientific research?11 Aug 2028 (23 Aug 2027 - May 2032)-111 comment1111 forecasters11 Aug 2028 (23 Aug 2027 - May 2032)
When will an open-source AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?22 Oct 2026 (22 Dec 2025 - 06 Jan 2028)428181 comments302302 forecasters22 Oct 2026 (22 Dec 2025 - 06 Jan 2028)
What will be the total disclosed VC funding levels globally invested in AI startups during 2029?363B $ (218B - 547B)0 comments77 forecasters363B $ (218B - 547B)
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242323 comments332332 forecasters30%chance
Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?93% chance566 comments4949 forecasters93%chance
How many of the 25 largest global companies will have a C-suite officer that specializes in AI, as of January 1, 2030?15 companies (7 - 21)0 comments1010 forecasters15 companies (7 - 21)
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?99% chance241414 comments145145 forecasters99%chance
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?13% chance42626 comments5353 forecasters13%chance
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?34.7 months (9.34 - 151)415151 comments348348 forecasters34.7 months (9.34 - 151)
How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?20 comments4444 forecasters
When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?0 comments66 forecasters
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?83% chance644 comments6161 forecasters83%chance
Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?70% chance33 comments2929 forecasters70%chance