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Key Factor

Diplomacy game length makes skill demonstration slow

condition

CTs AI Admin Disempowerment Before 2030

16 forecasters

if yes

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CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

26%

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

no comments0

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

In which year will AI infrastructure account for 10% or more of global electricity consumption?

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2 comments2

AI Pathways Tournament

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

May 2033

4.2 years this week

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Metaculus AI Forecasting Benchmark Resources Page

5 comments5

By the start of the 2028–2029 school year, will a majority of the 20 largest US public school districts be actively using an AI-powered tutoring system for a core subject?

30%chance

7% this week

🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

Quantum-enhanced machine learning by 2040?

CTs Deep Learning Revenue

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

When will AI first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy?

Key Factor

Key Factor

CTs AI Admin Disempowerment Before 2030

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

In which year will AI infrastructure account for 10% or more of global electricity consumption?

Join Foresight’s AI Pathways Tournament: $5,000 Comment Prize

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

Key Factor

Metaculus AI Forecasting Benchmark Resources Page

By the start of the 2028–2029 school year, will a majority of the 20 largest US public school districts be actively using an AI-powered tutoring system for a core subject?

🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

Quantum-enhanced machine learning by 2040?

CTs Deep Learning Revenue

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

When will AI first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy?

Key Factor

Key Factor

CTs AI Admin Disempowerment Before 2030

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

In which year will AI infrastructure account for 10% or more of global electricity consumption?

Join Foresight’s AI Pathways Tournament: $5,000 Comment Prize

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

Key Factor

Metaculus AI Forecasting Benchmark Resources Page

By the start of the 2028–2029 school year, will a majority of the 20 largest US public school districts be actively using an AI-powered tutoring system for a core subject?