Will a Cognitive-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?25% chance99 comments33 forecasters25%chance
Will a Cognitive-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?50% chance11 comment11 forecaster50%chance
Will an Intelligence-domain AMO be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?20% chance11 comment11 forecaster20%chance
Will an Intelligence-domain AMO acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?5% chance11 comment11 forecaster5%chance
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?45212212 comments318318 forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?01 Sep 2027 (10 Sep 2026 - 08 Jan 2030)224669669 comments1.8k1.8k forecasters01 Sep 2027 (10 Sep 2026 - 08 Jan 2030)
Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?11111 comments115115 forecasters
Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.322 comments
When will a sitting US President make a declaration about AI that meets the following criterion?111818 comments1818 forecasters
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?90% chance755 comments6868 forecasters90%chance
Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?68% chance73131 comments143143 forecasters68%chance
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?21 Jan 2031 (16 Apr 2028 - Jul 2037)220669669 comments1.9k1.9k forecasters21 Jan 2031 (16 Apr 2028 - Jul 2037)
Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?96% chance396464 comments254254 forecasters96%chance
Will Germany, Italy, and Australia establish dedicated AI Safety Institutes before 2027?11313 comments2424 forecasters
Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?90% chance122 comments134134 forecasters90%chance
Before 2032, will a G7 central bank or finance ministry credit an AI forecasting system as a key reason for a major preemptive policy action to avert a potential economic crisis or instability?26% chance11111 comments8888 forecasters26%chance
Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?40% chance64242 comments8484 forecasters40%chance
Which year will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic first reach a valuation of at least $1 trillion?51818 comments102102 forecasters
When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?25 Oct 2027 (04 Aug 2026 - 18 Jul 2030)967979 comments646646 forecasters25 Oct 2027 (04 Aug 2026 - 18 Jul 2030)